???????????????10?????31????? (???????????)??31????,????????,?6????,9??7270??????????????????????????????20%;?24?????6??????????????????

???????

??????????,?????????,???????????????????????????,??,?????

???,???????????????????,??????“?????????????????”,????????????????????“???????????”,???????????,??1.1??1608????????;??????“??”?????,???????????????,???1514????????????????????566????;???????,????1???????????????

???????????????????????,?“???????????????????????”,??,??????????????124??????,??200?????;????????????????????,????????1.75???????????7????????????????,????S???????????,????????“??”???????????????????

????,???????“????”“??????”??????,??????????,??????,???????28??20%??????257.5??????????????????????56.6?,????????1????????

?,????????????????????,????;???,?????0.5???????,???????AIC????????????100?????????????(?????????????)

???:??? ??“?????????”

?? ???????????????6?????

????:1??????????:????

2???????wx

3???????????

4???????100???

5????????????

???????????????10?????31????? (???????????)??31????,????????,?6????,9??7270??????????????????????????????20%;?24?????6??????????????????

???????

??????????,?????????,???????????????????????????,??,?????

???,???????????????????,??????“?????????????????”,????????????????????“???????????”,???????????,??1.1??1608????????;??????“??”?????,???????????????,???1514????????????????????566????;???????,????1???????????????

???????????????????????,?“???????????????????????”,??,??????????????124??????,??200?????;????????????????????,????????1.75???????????7????????????????,????S???????????,????????“??”???????????????????

????,???????“????”“??????”??????,??????????,??????,???????28??20%??????257.5??????????????????????56.6?,????????1????????

?,????????????????????,????;???,?????0.5???????,???????AIC????????????100?????????????(?????????????)

???:???