????????????9????????????????????????30?????????? (????????? ?????????????)???30?????,?????????????????????????????????????????(AIC)???????29?????????????,??????????????AIC?????????????

??????

??????,??,????????????????,?,?????,???1500?????????500?????????100???????????????????,???,?AIC????

????????????????????????????????????????,???????100??,??????????????????????????????????????????,????????????????

??,??????,???????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????1.3??????????2.1???,??????????“???”?????????354??,??31????????,???24???????????

??????,?,????????,?????????,??????,???????????????,???????(???)

??????????:????????????? ??“?????????”

?? ????AIC????????????

????:1??????????:??????

2???????????

3?????????????

4???95???

5???????

????????????9????????????????????????30?????????? (????????? ?????????????)???30?????,?????????????????????????????????????????(AIC)???????29?????????????,??????????????AIC?????????????

??????

??????,??,????????????????,?,?????,???1500?????????500?????????100???????????????????,???,?AIC????

????????????????????????????????????????,???????100??,??????????????????????????????????????????,????????????????

??,??????,???????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????1.3??????????2.1???,??????????“???”?????????354??,??31????????,???24???????????

??????,?,????????,?????????,??????,???????????????,???????(???)

??????????:?????????????