2024?????:????????????1.5°C???????

??2?????11??????? (????????? ???)??«???-??????»????2024??«??»???,2024????????1.5°C,????1.5°C??????????,????«????»?????????

?????????????«?????????»???????1.5°C???????????????,2015??????????,«???»???,?1.5°C?????«???????»????20-30?????,?????(??)??????

??????,???20????2020????2030???????????????,???????2024?????1.5°C?????????,????«????????????»??????????

????,??????????????Emanuele Bevacqua??????“???6”(CMIP6)???????????,????1981?????????????????2014??

?????????????????,????0.6°C-1°C?????,?20??????????????????,???????2024???????????1.5°C,??20?????????,?????,2024????(??????????66%)??(?????99%)??????????1.5°C????????????20?????

???,??????????????(SSP)2-4.5?????,???,??????????1.5°C?????20???????????,?????????1.5°C??????20??,?20???????????

??????????????????????Alex J. Cannon??????????????????????CMIP6?????,2024????6????12????1.5°C,?????«?»??????????????,??????????????12????????1.5°C???????(???????????????20??)?????????,?????????????????????SSP2-4.5??????,??????????76%,????????SSP1-2.6???????????????,???56%?

?????,?????????????????????,????????18?1.5°C??,??????????????SSP2-4.5????????????????,????????

????????????????,?????????,??????,??,?????????«????????»????????????(??????????????????????) ?????:???????