2024????????????:???????1.5°C?????

?????2??????????11?? (??????????????? ?????????)???????«?-?????»????????2024???«????»?????,2024????1.5°C,????????????1.5°C???,??????????«????»???????

????«?????»????1.5°C???????,2015??????,«????»??,?1.5°C??????????????«????»??????????????20-30????,???????(??????????????)???????

???,?????????20?2020???????2030?????????,????????????????2024???1.5°C?????????????????,??????????«?????»??????

????,????????????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua????????????“??6”(CMIP6)????,???????1981??????????2014??????????????????????

?,????0.6°C-1°C???,????????20????????,??????????2024????????????1.5°C,??????20????????????????????,?????????,2024???(?????????66%)??????????????????????(??????????99%)?1.5°C?????????????????????20?????

????????,??????????????????????(SSP)2-4.5?????,????,??????1.5°C???????????20????????????,???????1.5°C?????????20?,?????????????????20???

????????????Alex J. Cannon???????????CMIP6?????,2024??????????6????????12??????1.5°C,?«???????»??????????,????12????1.5°C?????(???20????????????????)?????????,??????SSP2-4.5???????????????,???????????76%,???????SSP1-2.6?????,???????56%?

????,??????,????18???1.5°C?????,???SSP2-4.5????,?????????

??,?????????,???????,?,???????«?????????????»???(????????) ?????:??????