??
?????????????2??????????????11????????? (???? ?????????)????????????«?????-????»??????????????2024????????«????????»????,2024?????1.5°C,????????????????1.5°C????,????????«?????????????????????»???????
?????????????????«?????????»????1.5°C?????????????????????????,2015??????????????????????,«??????»???,???1.5°C??«?»??????20-30????????,??????????(???????)???????
?????,??20????2020?2030?????????????????,???2024????1.5°C?????????,????«????????»???
????,??????????????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua????“??6”(CMIP6)?????,????1981??????2014?????
?????,??????????0.6°C-1°C??????,????????20?????,?????????????????2024????????1.5°C,???20????????????????,?????????,2024?????(?????66%)????(????99%)???1.5°C???20???
????,??????????????(SSP)2-4.5???,???,?????????????1.5°C?20???????????,??1.5°C????20?,??????????????20????????????
???????????????????Alex J. Cannon??????????CMIP6???????,2024??6????12?????1.5°C,????«??????????»?,?????12???????????????1.5°C??????????(??20???????)??????????????????,???????SSP2-4.5??,?????????????????76%,???????????SSP1-2.6???????,????????????56%?
????,???,?18?1.5°C?,???SSP2-4.5???????,????????????????
????????????,?????????????,???????,???????,?????«??????????»?????(??????) ??????????:??????
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?????2024????????????:?????1.5°C????????????????????