???????????????2????????11?????? (????????????????????? ???)???????????????????????«?-??????»????2024??????????«????»????,2024???????1.5°C,?????1.5°C?????????????,?«??????????»????

????????????«?????????»????1.5°C????????????,2015?????,«??????»??????????????,????????1.5°C?????«????????»???????20-30???????,???????(???)??????

?????,???????20????????2020????2030?????????????,???2024????1.5°C?,?«????»????????

??????,????????????Emanuele Bevacqua????????“???????????6”(CMIP6)?????,?1981??2014???

?????????,????0.6°C-1°C???,?????????20????????????????????????,?????2024????1.5°C,??????????????????????20????????????,????????????,2024?????????????????(????66%)?????????(????99%)??1.5°C????????20?????

????,????????????????????????(SSP)2-4.5???,?????????????????,?????1.5°C????20?????????,????????????????1.5°C??20???,????????20??

????????????Alex J. Cannon??CMIP6??,2024?6??????12????1.5°C,???«????»????,???12????1.5°C????(??????????????????????20?????)????????????????????????,???SSP2-4.5???????????????,?76%,??????????SSP1-2.6?????????????????????,?????56%?

??,??????????????,??????18??????????1.5°C?????,???????????SSP2-4.5??,?????

??????????,??????????????,??,???,??«???»????????(??????????) ??????????????????:??????

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