?????????2??11????????? (???? ????????????????)?????????????????????«??-????»????????2024??????????????«????»?????????,2024??????????????1.5°C,?????1.5°C????????????????,????«??????»????

?????«?»???????????1.5°C???????,2015????,«?»???????,???????????1.5°C????????«??»?20-30??,??????(??????????)???

??????????,?20???????2020??????????????2030???????,???2024?????1.5°C?????????????????,?????????????????????«???»??????????????????

????,???????Emanuele Bevacqua??????????“???????????????6”(CMIP6)??????,??????????????????????1981????2014???

????????,????????????0.6°C-1°C??,????????20???????,?????????2024?????1.5°C,????20???????????????,??????,2024?????(???66%)?????????????(???????99%)?????????1.5°C??????20?????????

????????,?????????????????(SSP)2-4.5??,?????????,???1.5°C??????????20???????????????????,???1.5°C???????20????,??????????????????????20?????

?????????????????Alex J. Cannon????CMIP6?????,2024??????6?????12?????????????????????1.5°C,??????????«?????»????,??12??1.5°C????(????????20????)???????????????????????,??????????SSP2-4.5????,?????76%,?????SSP1-2.6??,???56%?

???????????,???????,????18???1.5°C??????,????SSP2-4.5?,?????????????

?,???????????,?????,????,????«????»???????(????) ???????????:??????

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