??
??????????2?????????????????????11???? (????? ????)??????«?????-????????????»????????2024??«????????»?,2024?????????????1.5°C,?????1.5°C???????,????«?????????????????????»???
????????????«????»????1.5°C??????????????,2015???????????,«?»?????????????????,???1.5°C??????«????»??????20-30?????????,?????????????????(?????????)?????????
???,?????20???2020???????????2030??????????????,??????????2024?????1.5°C????????,??????????????«??»??????
?????,????????Emanuele Bevacqua??“?????????????6”(CMIP6)???,?????????1981??2014?????????????????
???????,??????????0.6°C-1°C??????,??20??????????????????,???2024????1.5°C,??????20??????,????,2024??????(????????????66%)?????(???????99%)??????1.5°C??????20??????
??,???????????????(SSP)2-4.5?,????,??????????1.5°C?????????20?????????????????,??????1.5°C?20???????,????20??????
???????Alex J. Cannon????CMIP6?????????????????,2024???????????????6?12????????1.5°C,??«???»????,???????12????1.5°C????(???????20???????)??????????,??????????????????????SSP2-4.5???????,??????????????????????76%,??????????????SSP1-2.6??????????,???????56%?
?,????????,??????????????18???1.5°C????,?????SSP2-4.5????????,?????
????,?????,????,?????,????«????????????????»??(?????????) ?????????:??????????
?????????
?????2024???????:????????????1.5°C??????????????????