2024????????????:???????1.5°C?????

????2?????11???? (?????????? ?)????????????????«??-???????»????2024?«????????»?????,2024???????1.5°C,?????????????1.5°C??????,??«??????»???????????????

????«????»?????????????????????1.5°C????????????????????,2015??,«??????????»?????,??????????????????????1.5°C??????????????????«?????????»?????20-30???,???????????(????????)????????

????????,????20???????2020????2030?????????,??????2024????1.5°C??????????,????«????»????????

??????????,?????Emanuele Bevacqua?????“????????????6”(CMIP6)??,?????????1981?????????2014??????????????

?????,??0.6°C-1°C?????,??20??????????????,?????2024???????????1.5°C,??20?????????????,??????????,2024?(???????????????66%)?????????????????(????????99%)?????1.5°C??20????

??????,???????????????????????????(SSP)2-4.5?????????????????,????????,????1.5°C??????????20?????,????1.5°C???20?????,?20??

???????Alex J. Cannon???????CMIP6?????,2024????????6??????12?????1.5°C,???«???»??,???????12????1.5°C?????(??????????????????????20??????)???????????????????????????????,????SSP2-4.5?,?76%,?????????SSP1-2.6??,???56%?

???????????????,??????,?????????18???????1.5°C??????????,????????????SSP2-4.5??????????????,????????

????,??????????????,?????,??????,????«???»?????????(????) ????????????:???