????“????”?

??

??????????:?????????????????

?????????????2025.2.24?????1176????????????«???????»??????????

2025???????????2??????????18??,???????,??“????????????????”????????“?????????????????????”??????,?????

????????????,???????,?????????,????????????????,????????????,????????????

???,?“??????,?”,???????????“??????????????????”???????,??????18??,????????“????????????????????”??????,??????

?????2????18???????????????,??????,???????“?,??????”???????????????????????,“??????????,‘????????????,??????????????’????????,?????(?????????????)?”

???????????????,??????????????,??????????????,??????????????????,?????????????,??“???????????????”?

?????????????????????????“???????????”????????????????????????????????????????????????????

??????????

2??????13?????????????????????????,????????,?????????????“??????????”??????????????,???????,????????????????????“???????????????????”?

????????????2024????????????????????,?????????????????????????????,??,???????:“????????38????”

?????????????????,?,???

“??,????,????????????(?????????)???????????”????(OSCE)??«?????????»??????????????????

???????2?????13?????????,???:??????????????????????,???????????????????????,????,???????

“?????????(???????????)???????????????,???????:??????????”?????????????(ECFR)?????????????????????????????????????????,?????,??,?????????????????????????????????,??

?????????????????,????????????????????“?”?????????,???,???“?”???????????????“24???”??“????”??????“??(4????????????20??????)???????????????????”,?????????????,???????????

??,2????????????????????18??,?????????????????????????????????????,???,???????????

?????????????????????????????????????????????????,????????????????,?????????????????“????”?????«?????»??????????????????,???,??????????????????“????”?

????????,?????????,??,????????????2024????????????,??????????????,????????,????,?????

?,??2025??,??????????????????????????????,????????1991???“????????”,??“?????????,????”?????????,??,??

????????2022????,???????????,???????????????????????,???????????????“???????????”???????,2022???????????????????,??????????,?,??????????

??????????????,???????????????????????????“????,??????????????????,???????,?????????????”???????????????«?»??????????????,“?????????????,????,??”

??,?,???????,??????????,???????,???????“??????????????????,????????????”

??????????????“?”???????????(shock and awe)???????????????????????«?»???,?,????????????“?????,??,??????????????,??”?

“?????????????,?????,????????”?????????????????????,“?????”????????????????,??“???????????????”?

?????????????,?,?????????????????????????,???????????????,????;??????????????????????????????,?????????????????????????“????????”,???????????????????,??????????“??????????????????”??,??????,?“?????????”?

6??2019??????????,????????????????,??????????????????,???????????????????:???????,??????????????,?????????

?????????????????????,??????,????????,????????????????????????“?????????”?????????????????????,?????????????????,??2022????????????????????,??????????????????????,?????????????????????,“??(???????????????)???????????????,?????,??”?

?????,???????????????????,??????,???????,?????????????????“???”?

“???”

2025????????2????????14??,????????????????,«??????????»????????????????????,?????“????????????????”??????:“??????????,????????????????,???????????????????”

???????????,????????????????????????????????,?????????????????????,????????????????????????????“?????????”,????????????????,?????????????????????????????????“?????????????”?,????????????????“???????,??????”?

???????????????,?????????????????????????,??????“????????????”??????????,?????????????????????“????”????????«?»?????????

?????,????????“?????????”???,?????????????????????2025????????????????????1??,???????????????,?????????,“????????????,?”???????????????,??,???????????????????,??“?”?

“???????????????????,??,???????????????????”????,“???????,?????????????????????”

??2024?12????????,???,?????????“?????”,??????????????????????????????????,????????,???“??????”???,???,???????

??????,?????????????????????:2019??,?????????????“?”???????????????,?????????2020????????????????????“????????????????”,?????????“??”???

???????,???????????“????”,?????????????????????????????,2014?????,??????????????????«???????????????»,??????,????“??????”?????

???????2020 ?????????????????? 6 ???????????,???????????????????,???????“????”,?????????????????????2016??????????????????2022??????????????2???,??8??????????????????????????????,????????????

????,???????????????,????2014????2022???????????,??????????????????????,????“????????????????????”,?2022?:?????????????????????5?????????????????????,????????“???????,?????”?

?????????????«???????»?,??????????????????????????,??,?,?????????????????????????:“????????????????,?????????????????‘??????????????????,???????????????’?”

???????????????,?????????“?????????”????“??”????????,??????????????????????????????,??????????,???????,??????????????????????,????????,??????,???????????

“?????????????????????,???????,???,????????‘??????????????’?”????

?????????,????????????????????,???????,??????????????????:?????????,?,???

????,???????????,?????????:?????????:???????,???????????????????????????

“????????????”

2024???????12????18????,“?????????????”?????????,?????????????????????????,?????????????????????,???????????“????????????”????????????????????,??????????????????

????????????????????,?????????????,??????12???????????14?????15???“?”,????????????????????????“?????????”?????????,?????????????????,???:?,?????“??”?

?????,?????,????,?????????????????????,???????

?,????????“??????????????”??,?????????????????????????????????????????????????7??????????????????????????????????????«??»?,??“?”???;???,?????“?????????????????????”;???????????????

??????,?????????????,??????????????“??”???????????????,?“?????”?????????

??????????,???????“????????,???????”;?????????????,????????“????????????”?????,??????????,????????????????????“??????”?

?,???2025???????????????????2????12???????????????????????????????,????????14?????????????????????????????????1.8??????????????,???????????????????,??????50%????????????

?????????????,???????,??,?????????????????????????????????????????:??,??????

???????????????????????????“??????????”??,????15%,????????????????????2024???5??????23%???????????????????????????“??????????????????”,???,???????,????????:??????????

????????????????,????????????????(GDP)?0.75%????,??GDP???0.52%,????????11????????????

??,??????“??????”,?????????????“?????”?????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????,?????,?????????,????????5000??????????????????????

?????????????????????,???????,??????????????????????????,?????,??????????????????????????????,???,??????“??????”????????

????????,??:??????????????????,“????????????????????”???????????,????????:“???????????????,??,??”

?????,???????????????????,???????????700??????,??????????????????????:“????????????????,??????????,????????????????:??????????????????????”

2024?????,?????,?????????????????“?”?

“???????????????????????????:?????????????,??????,????????????????”??????1918?????,??,???(John Joseph Pershing)?“??????????????????,????????????????20??”,?????????????????????????

“??????????”?????:??????????,????????“????????????”???????????,???????

????«???»??????,?,????????????????????????????????,???,??????,?????????“??????????”??????????,????

?,??????????,????,?“??????????”,???????,??????????,???????????,???????“???????????,???????????????”?

?????????????????2025??2??????????????????17?????????,???????????????????“????”??????3??????????????,?????????????????????,????????

??????“??”???????????????,????????????????????????,???????????“??”?“?????????”;????,??????????????????????????????«??????????????»?,?????,????????????????,???????????????????????“???????????”?

«??????»2025???6??????????????????????

??????????????????????????????????:??????«??????????????»??????? ???:???????????????????

?????????

?????????“????”??????

????????