2024???????:?????1.5°C????????????

??2???????11?? (???? ??????)????????????????«???-????»????????2024???????«?»?,2024????1.5°C,??1.5°C????????,???«??????»???????????????

????«????????»?????1.5°C???????????,2015???,«??????»???????,???????????1.5°C????????????????«??????»?????????20-30??????????,????(??)?????

?????????????????,?20?????????????????????2020??????????????2030???????????????,???2024??????????1.5°C?????????,?????????????????«????????»????

??????,???????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua????“?6”(CMIP6)??,????1981?????2014?????

?????????,??????????0.6°C-1°C???,????20??????????????????,???2024????1.5°C,?????20???????????????,??????????,2024??(????????????????66%)?????(??????????????????????99%)?????????1.5°C?????20???????????????????????

?????????????????????,??????????(SSP)2-4.5????,????,???1.5°C???20?????????,??????????1.5°C???????20???????,??????20????????

??????????Alex J. Cannon??????????CMIP6?,2024??????6??????????????12????1.5°C,????«????????????????»????,???12???????????1.5°C????(????20?)??????,?????????????SSP2-4.5????,?76%,????SSP1-2.6????,?????????????????56%?

?????????,??,????18??????1.5°C??????????,??????????SSP2-4.5?????,?????????????

????????,??????????,????????????,?????????,???????«????»??????(??????) ??????:??????