????2????11???? (???????????????? ????)????????????«?????????-?????»??????????2024???????«?????????????»????,2024???????????1.5°C,?????????1.5°C???????????????,???«???»??????????????????

?????«????»???????1.5°C??????????,2015???,«?»??????????????,?1.5°C?????«?????»????20-30?????????,????(???????)??????

?,??????????20???????2020????????????????2030??????????,??2024????????1.5°C???????,????«?????????????????»???

??????,??????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua??????????“???????????????6”(CMIP6)????,????1981?????????2014???????

??????????????????????,?????????????????????0.6°C-1°C?,????20??????????????,??????????????2024?????1.5°C,????20???????????????????????,??????????,2024??????????(????66%)????????(??????99%)?1.5°C?????????20???????????????

??,???????????????????????????(SSP)2-4.5??,???????,???1.5°C?????20???????????,??1.5°C????20????,??20???????

?????????????Alex J. Cannon???CMIP6??,2024?6??????12??1.5°C,????«??»?????,???12??????1.5°C???(????????????20??)??????????????????,????????SSP2-4.5??????,?76%,???SSP1-2.6????????,???????56%?

???,??????????,???????????18?????????????1.5°C??,?????????????????SSP2-4.5?????,?????

?????????????????????,???????????????,?????,?,??????«????????????»??????(??) ?????:????

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