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?????????2???11? (????? ?????)????????????????????«??-??»??????????????2024???????«????????»??????,2024??????1.5°C,????????????1.5°C??,?????«????»?????

???«????»?1.5°C??????????????????????????????,2015????,«???????»??,?????????????????1.5°C????«???»?????20-30??????????,??????(??????????)??????????????

??????,?20????????2020??????2030?????,????2024??????1.5°C??,??????????«?????»????????????????

???????,??????????????Emanuele Bevacqua????????????“?6”(CMIP6)???????????,????1981?????2014??????

????????????????,??????0.6°C-1°C????,????????20?????????????????,??2024???????1.5°C,???20?????????????????,???,2024?(????66%)????(????99%)?????1.5°C???????20??

??,?????????????????????????????(SSP)2-4.5????,????,??????????????????????1.5°C????20???????,????????1.5°C?????20????,??20????

????????????????????????Alex J. Cannon?????????CMIP6???????????,2024?????6????????12??1.5°C,????«????????????????»????,???????????????12??????????????1.5°C?????(???????????20??)?????????????,????SSP2-4.5?????????????????????,???76%,????SSP1-2.6????,????56%?

?????????,?????????????????,?18??1.5°C????,???SSP2-4.5??????????,??????

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