????2?????11??????? (????????? ????)??????????????«??????????????????????-??????????????»???????2024?????«??»???????,2024?????1.5°C,?????1.5°C?????????????????????,???????????«????»??????????

??«?????»?1.5°C????????????????,2015???,«??????»??,????1.5°C??«??????????»????????????????20-30?????,?????(????????)?????

??????,?????????20???????????2020??2030???????????????????,?2024???1.5°C????????,??????????«??»???

????????,?????????Emanuele Bevacqua??“?????6”(CMIP6)??????????,???????????????1981?????2014??????????????

?,??????0.6°C-1°C??????????????,???20????????,????2024????????????1.5°C,????20?????,?????????,2024??????????????(????????????66%)??????(????99%)??1.5°C????20?????

??,?????(SSP)2-4.5???????,??????,??????????????????????1.5°C??????????20?????????????????????,???1.5°C????20???????,?????????????????20??????????????????

????????????Alex J. Cannon?????CMIP6????????,2024???????6??????12????1.5°C,????«?????»?,????????????????12???????????1.5°C??????(???20?????????)??????????????????,??????SSP2-4.5???,????????76%,???SSP1-2.6???,?56%?

????,????,??????18???????1.5°C????,?????????SSP2-4.5?????????????????????,??

??????????,?????????????????,??,???????,????????«???»??????????????????(????) ?????:??????

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