????????????2?????11???? (????? ????)?????????????????????????????«????-???»??2024????????«???????»??????????,2024???1.5°C,?1.5°C??????????,???????«??????????????»??????????

????«?????????»?1.5°C?????????????????????,2015?????,«???????????»??????,??1.5°C?????«????»??????20-30???????????,???(?????)??????????????????

?,????20????2020???2030?????????,??2024?????????1.5°C??????????,??????????????«????????»??????

???,????????Emanuele Bevacqua????????“???????????????6”(CMIP6)?????,??????1981????????2014???????????

????????????,??0.6°C-1°C????????,?20??????????,??????????????2024????1.5°C,?????20?????????????????????????????????,?????,2024????(???66%)??(???????????99%)????1.5°C?????????????20??????????

?????,????????????????????(SSP)2-4.5????????,???????,????1.5°C?????20???????????????,???1.5°C?????????????????20??,??20???????????

???????????????Alex J. Cannon???????CMIP6????,2024?????6????????????????12??????1.5°C,??«???????»????,??????????????????????12??????1.5°C?????(????20?)?????????????,?????????????????????SSP2-4.5????????????,?76%,????SSP1-2.6?????,??56%?

???,???,??18????1.5°C???????,???????SSP2-4.5?????????,???

??????,??????????,??????,?,??????«?????????????????????»???????(????) ??????????:?????

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