????:1???????:92?95?98??????

2??????????????

3??????????

4???????

5????????95?98?

???2???19??? (??)???????????????2????19?????,2024??????,???1097.5??????(????,???),?9.2%,????3.6????,???

????????????

????,??“??????????+????”?????????????????,????“???????”???,??242?????200????????3746??????928.07???????????“??????????????????????,??????????????2024??,????1796????,??19.4%?”

??,???,????,???????????????????????????“????????????”????????????,?????“?????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????”??????????“???”????????????????????????2024??,??????????2057.78?????????????????????,????????17.7%,??7.8??

??????,???????“?”,????“????????????????????”??????,??????????“???????,??????????????????”?

“‘????????’???,?????????????????????????????????”?????????,“?”??????????????,???????,??????????????????,????????????????????????????????????,“?????”????113?????????????384????,???308??

????????????????,???????????????(??AIC)??????“????”???,??“???????”?“??”?????????,??????????,?????“?,????6??AIC??????????????????????,??40??????????AIC??????,????”(????)

??????:?????