?????:???????????????????

?????????2025.2.24?????????1176??«?????»??????

2025???????????????2????18??,???????????????????,?“????????????????????”??????????????????“??????????????”??????,????

?????????????????????????,?,??????????,?????????????????,?,??

???????????,????????“???????????,????????”,????“????????????”??????????,??????18?????????,????????????????????“?????”???????????,???????

????????????????2????18?????,???????,??“????????????????,????????????”??????????????????,“??,‘???,????????’??????,???????(???????????????)?”

???????,?????,?????????????,???,?,??“???????????????????????????”?

?????????????????????????“?”?????????????????????????????????

???

2??????????13???????????????????,?????????????????????????????????????????,????????????“??????”?????????????????,??,?“?????????”?

???????????????2024????????,????????,???????????,?????:“???????????????????38??????????????”

????,??????,???

“?????????,????????????????????,???????????????????????????(??????????????)??????????”????????(OSCE)?«????????????????????»???????????

?????????????2???????13?????,??:?,??????????????,????,??????

“????????(?????????)?,???????????:??????????????????”????????????????(ECFR)???????????????????????????????,????????????????????,?????????,?????????????????,?????????????????

?????????,?????????“??”???????,??????,??????????????“???????????”???“24???”????????????“????????”???????????“???????????????????????(4????20??????)????????”,??????????????????????,??????????????

??????????????,2??????????????18?,????????????????????,???????????,??

???????????????,???????,????“????????????”???????«???????????????????????»?????????,??,???“?????????????????????”?

?????,???????,??,????????????????2024??????,?????????????????,??????,??????,???????????????

?????????????????????????,??????2025??,??????????????????????,???1991????????????????“????”,??“????????,????????”?????????????,???,???????????????

??2022?,????????????,???,??????????????“??”????????????,2022??,????????????,?,????????????

??,?????????????????????????“????????,????????????????????????,???????,??”????????????????????«??»????,“???????????????,???????,????????????????”

??????????,????,???????????????,?,?,?????????“?????????,??”

?????????????????????????????“????????”?????????(shock and awe)??????????????????????????????«???????????????»??,??????????,????“??????????,???????????????,?,?????”?

“??,??????,??”?????????????????????????????????,“?”???,???“??”?

?????????????,?????????????,??????????????????,???????????,???????????????;?????????????????????????????????,?????????“??????????????”,?????????????????,?????????????“????????”?????????,?????????????????,????????“??”?

6?2019?????????????,????,????????????????????????????,??????:??,??????????,?????????

??,??????,??????????,????????????????“?????????????”??????????????????????????,????????????????????,?????????????????2022?????????????????,???????????,?,“??(?????????)??????,?,????????”?

????????,?????????????????,????????????,????????????????,??????????????????“?????????????”?

“??????”

2025????2?????????????14?,?,«?????????»???????????????,?????????“?????????”?????????????:“?,???????????????????,????????????”

???????,?????????????????????????????????,??????????????????,???????????????“??”,???????,????????????“?????????????”??????????,?“???????,????????”?

????????????????????,????????????????,??“?????????????”???????????,??“????????????????????”????????????????????????????????«???????»????????????

????,???“??”?????????????????????????,???????????????????????2025???????????1????????,?????????????????????,?????????????,“?????????,?????????”???????????,?,????????????????????????????,??????“??????????????????????????”?

“??,??????????????????,???????”???,“?????????????,???????”

??2024???12??,?,??????????“????????????”,??????????,????????????????????????,??????????????????????“?????????”??????,?????????????????,????

????????????,?????????????????????????:2019??????,?????“??????”??????????,???????????????2020????????“??????”,????“???”????????

??????????,?????????????“??”,???????????????????????????,2014?,??????????????????????????????«??»,??????,????????????????????????“????????????”?????????

????2020 ???????????????? 6 ????,???????????????????????????,????????????????????????????“???????????????”,???????2016??????2022????????????2???????????????,???????8????????,????????

?????????,???????????????,?????????????????2014???????2022???,?????,??????“??”,????????2022?????????:?????5??,??????????“??,??????”?

???????????«??????????????????????????»????,??,????????????????????????,??,?????????????:“??,??????????????????‘??????????????????,????????????????’?”

???????,?????????????????“??????????????”??“??”??,??????????,??????????????????,?,????????,???,?????,?????????

“??,??????????????,??,????????????????‘???????????????????’?”??????

??????,???????????????????????????????????????????????,???,??????????????????:????,???????,????????????

???????,??,??:??????????????????????:???????????????????????,????????????????????????????????

“????”

2024?????????????12?????????????????????18??????????,“??”?,?????,??????????????????????,????????????????“?”??????????????????????????????,???????

?????,???????,????????12??????????14???????????????15????“?????????”,?????“????”????????????????????????????????,?????????????????????,???????:??????,??????????“????”?

????????????,?????????????????????????????????????????,????,?????????????????????,????

??????,??????????????????“????????????”???,??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????7?????????????????«?»?????????????????????????,??????“??????”??????????;??,??????“??????????”;???????

?????????????,??????????????????,?“????”?????,??????????“???????”????????

?????????????????????,??“?,??????????????????”;?????,??????????????????“???????????”??,????????????????????,??????“?????????????????”?

???????????,?????????????????????2025?????2????????????12??????????,??????14????????1.8???????????????????,??????????,???????????50%????????????????????

??????????????????????,?????????,???,????????:???????????????,???????????

?????????????????????????“???????”??????,??15%,??2024??????????5??????????????????23%?????????????“??????”,??,?????????,???:???

???????,????????????????????????????????(GDP)???0.75%???????????,????????????????GDP?????0.52%,?????????11??

?????????????????????????????????,????????“??????????”,????????????“???????”??????????,?????????????????,???,?????,??5000????????????????

?????????,?????????????,??????????,????????????????,???????????????,??????,???????“????????????????”????

???,????????????????????????????:????,“??????????????????????”????????????????????????,???????????????:“????????????????????,??,??????????”

???????????????,???????????????????,?????????????????????700???????????????????,????????????????????:“?,???????????????,???????:?????????????”

2024??????????,???????,????????????????????“?????????????????????????”?

“???????????????????????????????:????????,???????,?????????”??????????????1918??,?????,?(John Joseph Pershing)?“????????????????????,???????????20????????????????”,????????????????????

“?????????????????????”??????????:??????????,??????????????????“???????”???,????????????????

????????«??????»???????????,????,???????????????,?????,?,????“??????”???????????????,??????????

???????,????????????????????????,????,??????????????“?????????????????????”,?????????????????????????????,???????,?????,????????“????,??????”?

???????????????????2025??????????????????2??????17?????????????????????,?“??????????????”?????????????3??????????????????????????????,?????,????????????

??“??????????????????”????,?????????????????,?????“??????”?“???????????????”;????,??????????????????????«?????????????»???????????????,????,????,?“??????????”?

«???????????????»2025?????6???????

????:?????????«????????????????»???????? ?????????????????????:????

??

??:???????????,??????????,??????????????