??
??????????????2??????????11????????? (???? ????)???????????????«?????-????????????????»??????????????2024????«????»???,2024????1.5°C,?????1.5°C?????????????????,?????????«????????»?????
??????????«????»??????????1.5°C??????????????????????????????????????,2015???????????,«????????»????????,????1.5°C??????«?????????»????????20-30??????????????????????,?????(????????????????)????????????
??????,??????20???????2020?????2030??????????????????,???????2024??????1.5°C?????,????«??????????»?????????????
???????,???????????????Emanuele Bevacqua?????“????6”(CMIP6)??,???????1981????????????2014??
????,??0.6°C-1°C?????????,???20???????,?2024?????1.5°C,?????????????????????20?????????????,????,2024??????????(?????????????????66%)?(??99%)??????????1.5°C??????20??????
????????,???(SSP)2-4.5??????,???,?????1.5°C??????????20?????,?????????????????????1.5°C??20????,?20???????????????
???????????Alex J. Cannon???????CMIP6?,2024???????????????6??????12???1.5°C,??«??»???????,?????12?????1.5°C?(????20???)???????,??????SSP2-4.5????????,????76%,?????????????????SSP1-2.6???,????56%?
???????????,???????,??18???1.5°C?,????SSP2-4.5???,??????????
???????,?????????????????,????,????????,????«???»???(????) ?????????????:????????
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?????2024????????????:?????1.5°C????????????????????