????:1????????????:????????

2?2021?????????

3???????????

4????????

5???????????

???2???11???? (????????????????? ???)??????????????????????«?????????-????»?????????????????2024????«?????»????,2024????????1.5°C,??????????1.5°C????????????,?????«?????????????»??????????

???????«?????»???1.5°C????????????,2015????,«???????»???????,?????1.5°C???????????????????????«????»?????????20-30????????,?????(????)???????

??????????,??????20????2020????????????2030??????,????????????????2024???1.5°C?,???«??????????»??????????????????????

???????????????,?????????Emanuele Bevacqua????“?6”(CMIP6)??????,??1981??????????2014???????

????????,???0.6°C-1°C??????????,???20???????????????????????????,??????2024??????????1.5°C,?20?????????,?????,2024??(?66%)?????????(???????????99%)?1.5°C????20???????

????,????????(SSP)2-4.5??????,?????,????1.5°C?????20?????????????,??????1.5°C??20????????,?20?????

???????????????Alex J. Cannon????CMIP6??,2024???????6?????????????12????????1.5°C,??????????????«??????»???????,??????????12?????????1.5°C??(?????20?????)???????????????,?SSP2-4.5???????????,?????????76%,??????????????SSP1-2.6????????,?????56%?

???????????????,????????,??18???1.5°C???,??????????SSP2-4.5?????,??

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