????????????????2??????11??????????? (?? ????)????????????????«???????-???»??????2024??«??????????»??,2024???????1.5°C,???????1.5°C???,????«?????????»?????

????«?»?????1.5°C?????????,2015????,«?????»?????,?????????????????????1.5°C??????????«????»????????????20-30??????,???(?)???????

??,?????20??????????????2020???2030???????,????2024??????????1.5°C?????,????«?????»????

????,???????Emanuele Bevacqua??????????????????????“????????6”(CMIP6)?????,?????????????????1981??????2014???????????

?????????,??????????0.6°C-1°C?,???????????20???????????,??????????????2024??1.5°C,?????????????????????20???????????,????,2024??(????66%)???????(?????????????99%)??1.5°C????????20?????????

????,?????????????(SSP)2-4.5????????,?????,????????1.5°C????20?????,?????1.5°C???????????????20??,????????20???

??????????????????????Alex J. Cannon????CMIP6??,2024????6??????12????1.5°C,?????«?????????????????»???????,???12???1.5°C???????(???????????????20?)???????????,???SSP2-4.5?????,??????????76%,????????????????SSP1-2.6?????,??????????56%?

????,?????????,????????????18??????????1.5°C????,????????SSP2-4.5???,???????????????????????

?????????????,????????????????????????,?,??,??????????????«??????????»?????????(????) ??:????????

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