2024???????:????????????1.5°C?????

??2????11???????????????? (?????????? ??????)????????????????«?????-???????»????2024???????«????»????,2024?????1.5°C,????1.5°C??,??????«??»???

???«?????????»????1.5°C????????????,2015??,«??»????,?????????1.5°C???«?»?????20-30??????????,????(??????)???????????????

???,???20??2020???????2030????????????????,????2024????????????1.5°C?,???????«???»???

????????,???????????????Emanuele Bevacqua???“?6”(CMIP6)?????,????1981???????????????2014??????

??????????????,???????0.6°C-1°C???????,????20???????????????????????????,?????2024???????1.5°C,?????20???????????,??????????,2024?????(??66%)????(????????99%)????1.5°C?20???

?????????,???????????(SSP)2-4.5???,??????,????????1.5°C????20???????????????????????????????,????1.5°C????????20?????????????????????,??????????20??????????????????????

????????????????Alex J. Cannon?????????????CMIP6????,2024????????????????6????????12?1.5°C,????«?????????»?,??????????????????????12????1.5°C?????(?????????????????20????)?????????????,???SSP2-4.5???????????,???????????76%,????????????SSP1-2.6???,??????????56%?

?????,????????,??????????????????????18?????1.5°C??????,??????SSP2-4.5????,?????????????

????????,??????????,????,???,???????«??????»????????????????(???) ?????:??????