??
??????2????????11????????????? (?????????? ?????)????????????????????«????-????»????2024?????«???»????,2024????1.5°C,???????????1.5°C???,????«????»??????
??«??????»??1.5°C?????????,2015????????,«??????????»???????????,?????????1.5°C?????«????»???20-30????????????,????????????(??)????????
????????,?????20????2020???????2030????,???2024???????1.5°C?,?????«???»?????
?????????,???????????Emanuele Bevacqua?????“?6”(CMIP6)???,????1981?????2014????????
??????????,????0.6°C-1°C?????????,???20??????????,??2024??????????1.5°C,??????20???????????????????,?????,2024???(??66%)??????(?????????????????99%)????1.5°C?20????????
????????????????,???????????????????(SSP)2-4.5??,????,??????1.5°C??20???????????????????,?????1.5°C???????20?????,?20??????
??????Alex J. Cannon?????????????????????CMIP6????????,2024?????????6??????????????12??????1.5°C,????????????«???»?,????????12?1.5°C?(????????20?????)?????????????,????SSP2-4.5??????,??76%,??SSP1-2.6??????,?????????????????????56%?
???????????????,????,??????????18??????????????????????1.5°C????,???????SSP2-4.5??????????,???????????????
??????????????????????,??????????????????,?????????????,?????,????«????»????????????????(??????????????) ??????????????????:???????????
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?????2024?????:???????1.5°C?????????????????????????