2024?????:???????1.5°C????????????

??????????2???????11?????????? (????????????????????? ??)????????????«???????????????-?????»??????2024?????????«????»?????,2024????1.5°C,???????1.5°C??????????,????«????»????

????«??????????????????????»???1.5°C??????????????????,2015??,«?????»????,????????1.5°C??????«???»????20-30????????,????(?????)?????

??????????,????20???????2020???2030?????????????,???????????????2024????????1.5°C???????????,?????????????«????»??????

?????????,?????????????Emanuele Bevacqua??“?????6”(CMIP6)?????,????1981?????????????????????2014?????

??,???0.6°C-1°C?????????????????,??????????????20????,???2024?1.5°C,???20???????????????,??????,2024????(???????????66%)?????(???????99%)??????????1.5°C????????????20??????????

???????,???????(SSP)2-4.5????,?????????????,???????1.5°C????????????????20??????????,?1.5°C?????20????,????20???????????????????????

????????????Alex J. Cannon????CMIP6??,2024????????6?????12???????1.5°C,?«???»?????,??????12?????????1.5°C????????????(?????20??)??????????????????,?SSP2-4.5?,??????76%,??SSP1-2.6???,????????56%?

??,?????,?????????????????18??1.5°C??????,??????????????SSP2-4.5??,????????????

??????????,??????,?????????????????,?????????,????????????«???»???????????????(????) ???????:??????????