2024???????:?????1.5°C????????????

?????2????11???? (?????? ??????)????????«???????-????»????2024????????????«????»??????,2024?????????????1.5°C,???1.5°C??????,????«?????????????????»????????

??«???????????????»???1.5°C?????????,2015????????,«?»????????,?1.5°C??????????????????????«????»????20-30???,????(??????????)?????

??????????,????20???2020?2030???????????????????????????????????,?2024??????1.5°C??,????????«?»??????????

??????????????,??????????????Emanuele Bevacqua??????????“?????????6”(CMIP6)????,???????1981????????2014???

????????,????????????0.6°C-1°C??,?????20???????????,????2024?????????1.5°C,?????20??????????????,??????,2024????(????66%)?(??????????????99%)?????????1.5°C???????????????20?????????????

?,????????????????????????????????(SSP)2-4.5?????,??,????1.5°C??????????20????????????,???????1.5°C??????????20?,???????20??????

??????Alex J. Cannon?????????CMIP6??,2024?????????6???12??????????1.5°C,????????????????«??»???,???????????12????????1.5°C???(???????20?????)?????????????????????,??SSP2-4.5?????,????76%,????????SSP1-2.6??????,?????????????????56%?

???,?????,????18?????????????????1.5°C??????????,????SSP2-4.5?????,???????????????

????,???????????,?????,??????,???????????«??????????????????????»??????(????) ???:????