????:1???????:??????wx

2??????app

3?????

4???????????

5?????????

?????????????12??????????21???????? ????:???????20?????????????????????21???,????5?,200????

???????-????????????,????24?????????????????,?????????????????,??????????,????????

???-????????????,??????????????,?????,?????????,?????

?,?????21??,?2??????????????5?????,?????????????????????200??????????????????,??????????21????????????????????????????,?40???????

????????????????,???50????????,??????????Taleb A.,?????,2006?????

??,???????????????,?????????????????20?,???????????????

21?,??????????????,???????(?) ?????????????:????????????