????“????”?

??????????????????:???????????????

???????????????2025.2.24??????1176????????????????«???????»??

2025??2??????????18?,????????,????????????????????“??????????”?????“?????????????????????????”???,?????

????????????,?,????,?????????,???????,?????????

???????,????????“??????,????”,?????????“??”???????????????????,??????????????????18?????????,????????????????“?????”????,????

???????2??????18?????????????????????,?,?????????“???????????????,??”???????????????????????????????????????,“?????????????????????????,‘?????????????,?????????’????????????????????,???(???????)?”

???????????,????????,??????,???????????????,????????????,????“??????????”?

????????????????????“?????”??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

??????????????

2?13?,????????????????????,??“???????????????????”??????????????,??????????????,?“???”?

?????????2024??????????????????,?????????????????,?????,?????????:“?38?????”

?????????,?????????????????????,???

“?????????????????????,?????,???????????(?????????)???????????????”?????(OSCE)?«????????»????????

??2??????13???????????,??????????:??????,???????????????????,??,????????????

“????????(??????????)??,???????????????:????”????????(ECFR)??????????????????????????????,??????,??,???????????????????????????,???????

????????,??????“??”??????????????????,?,?“????????”?????“24?????”??“????????????????????”??????????“?????(4????????????????20??)??”,???????????????????????,?????????

??,2???????18?,????????????????????????????????????????,???????????????????????????,????????????????????

????????????????????????,?????????????,??????“????????????????????”???«?»????????????,?????????????????????????,????????????“???????????”?

??,??????????,????????,??????????????2024???????????????,??????????,?????,????????????????????,???

?,??????2025??,??????????????????????,??????1991??“?????????”,?“???????????,??????????????”?????,??,???

?2022?,??????,????????????????????,???????????????????????“????????”??????????????????,2022????????????????,???????????????????????????????????????,???????????????????????,???????????

??????,?????????????????????????????????“?????????????????????,???????????????????????????????????,??,????????”????????«???»?,“???????????????????,??,??????????????”

???????,??????,?????????????????????????,?????????,???,??????????“?????????????,?????????”

???????????????????????????????????“??????????”?????(shock and awe)????«????????????????????»???????????????????,???????,?????????????“???,????????????,??????,????????????????????”?

“???????????????,???????????,????????”??????????,“??????????”?,???????????????“??”?

????????,????,??????????????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????,??????;???????????????????,???????“?????”,???????????,???????????????“???????????”??,???,?????????“???????????”?

6??????????????????????2019??????????????????,??????,??????????????????????????,??????????????:?????????????,????????????????????,???????????

???????????????????????????,???????,????????????????,???“?????????”??????????????????,???????????????,????2022?????????????,???????,???????????,“?(??????)????????????????????,?,????????????”?

???,????????????,???????,?????????????????,?????“?????”?

“??????????????????”

2025??????2?????????????????14????????????,????????????,«??????????????»????????????????????????,???????????“??????”???????:“????????????????????????????,???????????,??????????????”

?????,??????????????????,??,???????????????????“???”,????????????????????????,??“?????????”??,?????????????“??????????????????,??????”?

???????????,??????????????,?????“???”??,????????“????????????????”??????????????«??????????»?????????????

?????????????????,????“?”??????????,?????????2025??????????1?,????,?????,“????,?????”????????????,??????????,????????????????????,?????“?????????????”?

“??,???,???????????”??,“??????,??????????”

?2024?????????12?????????????,????????????,??“?????????”,??????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????,???“?????”?????????????,????????????????????,??????????

??????????,??????????:2019???????????????????,???????“??”?????????,??????????2020???????????????????????“?????”,???????????“?”????

???????????????????????????,??????“??”,???????????????????????????,2014??????,??????????????????????????????????«???????????»,????????????????????,?“???????”????????????

???2020 ????????????? 6 ?,????,?????????????“???????”,???????????????????????2016??????????2022??????2????,???????8?????????????????????,????????

???????????,??????????????????,?????????2014??????2022??????,?????????,??“???????”,??????2022???:???????????????5???????,????????“????????????,????”?

?????????????????«?????»??,??????,???????,????????????????????,??????????????:“???????????????,????????‘????????,???????????????’?”

???????????,???“??????????”??????????????“??”?????????????????????,??????,????????????????,???,???????????????????????????,??????????????????????,?,??????

“?????,?????????????????,????,?????????????????‘???????????????’?”???

?,??????,????????,????????????:??????????????????,????,????????????

??????????????????,????????????????,??????:????????????????:???????????????????,??????????????????????????????

“??”

2024?????12??????????18???????????,“???????????????????????????????”????????,????,??????????????,??“???????????”???????????????????????????????,?????

?,??????,?12???14?????????????????????15?????????????“????????????”,???“????????????????”?????????,???,???????????:???,?“?????????????”?

????????????????????????????,?????????????????????,?????,??????????,????

????????????????????,??????“?????????”?????????????,???????????????????????????????????????????????7??????????????????????????«????????»??????????????????????????,?“?????????????????”???????????;????????????????,?????????“?????”;??????????????????????

??????,???????????,????????????“???????”????????????????????????,????????“??????????????”??????????????????????

??,?“???,??????”;??????,????????????????“???????????????????????”??????????????,???????????,?????????????????“?????”?

??????,???????2025??2???????12???,????14????????1.8????????????????????,????????????????,???????????????????50%??

???????????,?,???????????????????????????,????:????,??????????

??????????????“??????????”?????????,??????15%,????????????2024??????????????5????????23%???“?????????”,????????,??,??:????????????????????

???????????,?????????????????????????????????????????????????????(GDP)?0.75%??,??????GDP?0.52%,?????11?????

??????????????????????????,???“??”,??????????????????“?”????????????????,???????????????????,????????????????????,????????????????????,????5000?????????????

????????????????????????,????????????,???????????????????????????,????????????,?????????,????,?????“???????”?????????

?,???????:??,“???????????????????”?????????????????????,??:“???????????????,???????????,??????????????”

???????,????????????????????????????????????????????????,????700????????????????,?????????????????:“?????????,??,?????????????????????:????????????????????”

2024???,?????????,????“??????????????”?

“?????????:??????,??,??????????”???????????????????1918?????????????,????,?????????(John Joseph Pershing)?????????“??????????,?????????20?????????????”,??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

“???????”?????????????????????:????,???“??”??????????????????,????????

?«?»??,????,???????????????????????,?????,???????,?????????????????????????“?????????”???????????????,????????????????

??????????????,??????????????,??????????,????“??”,????,??????,?????????????,?????????“???????,??????”?

????????2025??????2???17????????,?????“??????????????”???????????3??????????????????????,?????????,??

????“?”???????????????,???,??????“??”????“?”;?????????,???????????????????«????»??,????????,???,???????????????“???????????????”?

«??????????????»2025?????????6????????????????

????:??????????«?»?????? ????:???????????