??????????2?????????11?????????? (????????????????????? ???)???????????????????«?????-?????????»???????2024????«???????»??,2024???????1.5°C,????1.5°C????????????????,??????????????«?????????»????

???????«????????»????????1.5°C????????,2015?,«??????»????????????,??????????1.5°C?????????«???????????»????????20-30???????????,???????(????)???

?????????????????,??20??????????????2020????2030??????????????????,??????????2024???1.5°C??,?????«????»?????

????,??????????????Emanuele Bevacqua??????????“??????????????????????6”(CMIP6)????????,???????????????1981????2014???????

????,??0.6°C-1°C?,????20?????????,????????????2024????1.5°C,??????20???????,????????,2024?????(????66%)??????????(???????????99%)?????1.5°C????????20??????

??,??????(SSP)2-4.5???????,?????,?????1.5°C?????????????????????20?????,????1.5°C??????20???????,????????????????20??

???????????????????Alex J. Cannon??????CMIP6?,2024?6???12????1.5°C,???«???»???,??????12?1.5°C??????????(????20?????????????????)????????????????????,????SSP2-4.5???????,??????????76%,?????SSP1-2.6?????????,????56%?

????????,??????,??????18?1.5°C?????,?????????SSP2-4.5??????????????????????,?????

?????,?????????,???,?????????????????,??«?????»?????(??) ?????????????:???

??

??:???????????,??????????,??????????????