??????2???????11???? (??? ?)?????????????«??????-?????»???2024??«?????????»???????????????,2024?????1.5°C,?????????1.5°C??????????,??????????????«???»?????????????

??????«?????????????»????1.5°C????????,2015??????????,«???????»??,????1.5°C??????????«????»???20-30????????,???(?????????????)??

??????????,???????20????????2020????2030??????????????,??2024????????1.5°C?,?????????????????«?????????»?????

????,???????????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua?“?6”(CMIP6)????,????1981????2014????????

??????,?????0.6°C-1°C????,??20?????????????????????????,????????????????2024????1.5°C,??????20????,??,2024????(?????????????????????66%)????(?????99%)???????????1.5°C????20??

??,????????????(SSP)2-4.5????,????????,???????????1.5°C??????20??????????????,??1.5°C??????????20????????????????,?????20??????

????????Alex J. Cannon??CMIP6???,2024?????6???12???????1.5°C,??????????????«????»??????????????,???????12?????????1.5°C????????(?????20?????)????????????????,????SSP2-4.5????????,??????????76%,???????????????SSP1-2.6???,?????????56%?

????,????????,????18?1.5°C??????????,??????????????????????SSP2-4.5?????,?????

?????????????????,???????????????????,???????,????,?????«??????»??(??????) ??????????????????????:?????????????

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