????“????”?

????:???????:??????????

???????:?????????????????????

???????????????????2025.2.24???????????1176??????«???»????????

2025????????2??????????????????18???????,??????????,????????????????“?????????”???????“????????”?????????,??????

???????????,???????????,??????????????,??????,?????????,?????????

????????????????????,?????????“???????,???????????????????????????”,????????????“?”??????????????,??18??????????????????,???????????“????????”????,???

????????2???????18???????,????????????????????????,?“???????????,??????”?????,“?????,‘???????,????’????????????????????????,??????(??)?”

???????????,???????????????,??????????,?????????????????????,?,??“??????”?

??????????????????????“??????????????????”?????????????????????????????????????????????????????

?

2????????????13??,???????????????????,????????“????”????????????????????????????,?????????,??????“????”?

??????2024???????,??????????????????,??,?????????:“??38????”

?????????,??????????,????????

“???,???????,???????(???????)??????”??????????(OSCE)??????????«??????»?????????????????

?????????????????2???????13????????????????,?:???????????????,??????????????????????????,?,???????

“?????????????????????(??????)???????????????,????????????????????????:??????????”??????(ECFR)???????????????????,????,????????????,????????,????

???????????,???“?”?????????????,?,?????????????????“??????????????????”?????????????????“24??????”???“??????????????”??????“?????????(4?20?????????)????????”,???????????,???

?,2??18?????????????,??????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????,????????????????

??????,????????????,??“??”????????«?????»???????,??????,??????????????????“??????”?

?????????????,????,????,?????????2024??,????????,????,????????????????,???????????????

??????,?2025???????????????,???????????????????????????????????????????????????????,????????????????1991????????“??”,?????“??????,?????????????????”???,???????????????,????????

??2022??????????????,???????,?????????????????????,?????????“??”???????????????,2022???????????????,????????????????????????,?????????????????,?????????????????

?????????????,?????????????????????“????????,?????,???????????????????????,????”?????????????????????«??????»?????????,“???????,???????,????????????????????”

????????????????????,??????????????,????????????????,?????,?????????????????????????,??????????????“????????????????,???????”

???????????????“???????????”??????????(shock and awe)?????????????????????«?????»?????????????????,????,?????????????“?????????????,????????????,????????????????????????????????,???????”?

“????????????????,?????,??”????????????????????,“?????????”????????,?????????????????????“?”?

?,?????????????,???????????????,?????????????,?????????;??????????,????“???????????????”,??????????????????,??????????“?”???????,????????,??????“??????????????”?

6??2019?????????????,????,???????????????????????????,?????????????????????????????:??????,??????,??

??????????????????,??????????,???????,????????“???????????????”?????????????????????????????,??????????????,???????2022??????????????,???????????,????????????????,“????(???????????????)?????????,??????????????,????????????”?

?????????????????,?????????????????????????????,??,??,??“????”?

“??????????”

2025???????2?????14????????,??????????,«?????????????????????»?????????,?“?????”????????????????????:“????????,??????????????,?????????????????????????????”

??,??????????,???,????????????????????“?????”,??????????????????????????,???????“???????????????????????????????”??????????,????“??????????????,??????”?

?????????????,?????????????,?????????????“???”????????????????????,???“?????????????”????????????????????«????»?????

?????????????,?????????“?????”??????????????????,???2025????????????????1??????,?????,???????,“?????????????,???????????????????????”?????,??????,????????????????,?????????????????????????“???????????”?

“????????????????????,???????????????,????”???????,“????,??”

??2024??????12?????????????,???????????????,??“????????”,??????????????????????,?????????????????????????????,??“?????????????????????”???????????????,???????????????????????,??????????

?????,???????????:2019???????,????????????????“??????”???????,?????2020??????????“?????????”,?“????????????”??????????????

?????,??????????“???”,???????????,2014???,?????????????????????«??»,??????,??????“?”?????????

??????????2020 ??????????? 6 ???????????????,???????,?????????“????”,???????????????2016??2022??2???????????,????????????????????8????????????????????????????????,???????

????????????????????,?????,????2014??????2022??????????????,?????????????????????,??????“?????????”,?2022???????:????????????????????5?,???“????????????????????,??????????????????????”?

?????????????????????????????????????????????????«??»??????,???????,???????????,?????,????????:“????,????????‘????????????,?’?”

?????????????????,??????“???????”?????????????“?????????”???,?????????????????,?????????,??????,??????????????????????????????,??,?,??????

“????,??,?????????????,????????‘???????????’?”???????

????????,?????????????????????????????????,???????????????,??????????????????:?????????,????????????,??????????

?,????????,????????:??????:?????????,???????????????????????

“??????????????????”

2024???12???????????18???,“????????????????”?????,????????????,????????????????????????,?“??”????????????????????????,??????????????

?,??????,??????????????12??14??????????????????15???????????“???????????????”,?“??????????????”?????????????????????????????,???????????,????????:???,??“???????????????”?

??????????????????????,????????????????,?????,?????????????????????,????????

???????????????????,???????????????“????”????????????,?????????????????????????????????????????????????7????????????????????????????????«??????»??????????,?“??????”????;????,??????????“??????????”;?????????

????,?????????,??????????“?????”????????????,??????????“??????????????”??????????????

???????????????????,?????????“???,?”;?,??“??????”??????????,?????????,?????????“????????????????????”?

????????????????,??????2025??2?12????????????????,????????????14???????????1.8???????????,????????????????????????????,??????50%??????????????

??????????????,????????????????????,??????,???????????????????????????:??????,??????

??????????????????“?”???????????,????????15%,???????2024???????????5?23%??????“????????????????????”,???????????????????,?????????,?????:??

?,???????????????????(GDP)????0.75%?????????????,??GDP????????????????????0.52%,???????????11???

??,????“??????????????????”,??????“????????”????????????????????????,?????,??,?,??5000?????????????????????????????????????????????

????????????????????????????,?????,????????????????????,??,??????????????????,?????????????????????????,?????“???????????????????????????”????

?????,?????:???????????????,“??”????????????????,????:“??????????????????????,???????????????????,???????”

??,????????????,??700?,???????????????????????:“????,?????????????,????????????????:?????????????????????????”

2024??????????,??,??????????“??????????????”?

“?:???,???????,??????????????????”?????????????1918????,???????,??(John Joseph Pershing)????????????“???????,??20??????”,??????????

“????”????????????????????:???????,??????????????????????????????????“??????????????”???????????????,??

??????????????????????????«?????»???,???????,?????????????????????????????????????????,???????????,??????????,?“??????????”??????,??????????

???????????,?????????,?????,??????“??”,??????????????,?????????,???,??????????“??????,?????????????????????????”?

????????????????????2025?2??????????????????????17????,???????“????”?????????3????????????????????????,?????????????????,??????????????????

?????????“????????????”????????,??????????,??????????“??”??“????”;????????????????,?????????????«?????????????????»??,????????,??????,??????“???????????????????”?

«?????»2025?????????6?????

??:?«??»????????????????? ????????????????:??????