????:1????????:????????????

2???????

3????????????

4???????

5?????????

???????????2??????????11?????????????? (????????????????? ???)??????«????-?»????2024??????«???????????????»?????????,2024?????????1.5°C,????1.5°C???????,????«????????»??????????

?????????«?????????????????????»??1.5°C????????,2015????,«?????»????,??????1.5°C??«???????????»???????20-30???????,????????(????)???????

????????????,???????????20??2020????2030??????????,??????2024?1.5°C???????,???«???»?????

???,???????????Emanuele Bevacqua?????“??6”(CMIP6)??,????1981????????2014?????

???????,????????0.6°C-1°C?,?????????????????20???????????????????,????????????2024??????1.5°C,?20???????????????????,????,2024???(???66%)?????(?????????????99%)???????1.5°C??????20??????

????,?????????????(SSP)2-4.5??????????,????,?????1.5°C?20??????????????????????????,????1.5°C????20?????,??????????20??????????

????????????????Alex J. Cannon????????????????CMIP6??????????????,2024??6????12????1.5°C,?????«??????????????????????»??????,?????12??1.5°C???????????????(????????????????20??????????)?????????????????????????????,???SSP2-4.5?????,?????????76%,??????????SSP1-2.6??????????,?????????????56%?

??????????,???????,??????18??1.5°C?????,??SSP2-4.5????????,?????

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