????:1?????????:?????????

2???????????

3???????

4???????

5?????QT???

?????????9??????????30??? (??? ???????????????)??????????????????30??,?????????????????(AIC)???????29????????????,?????????AIC????

?????????????????????????

?,?????,???????,?,??????????,???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????1500??500????100????????,?????????????,????????????AIC??????????????

?????,???100?,????????????????????????????????????????,???

????????,?????????????,???????????????????,????????????1.3??2.1??????,???????“??????”???354??????????????,???????31??,???????????????24?????????????

????,????????,??????????????????,????????????????????????,??,???????????????????,???????(?)

?????????????:??????????