??
????2????11????????? (?? ?)??????????«???????-????????»??????2024???«??????»????????,2024??????????1.5°C,?????????????????1.5°C????????????????,????«????»????
?????«???????»???????1.5°C???????????????,2015??????????,«????»????????????????,??????????1.5°C????????«?????»??20-30??????,???????????(???????????)?????
???????,??20??????????????????????2020?????????????????????2030???????,?????????2024?????1.5°C?????????????,???????????????«???????»?????
??????????????,???????Emanuele Bevacqua????????“?????????????????6”(CMIP6)????,???1981??????????????2014??????????????????
????,??????????0.6°C-1°C????????????,????20????????????,???2024???1.5°C,???20?????????????,?????,2024????(????????????66%)?(??99%)?????1.5°C?????20???????????????
???,????????(SSP)2-4.5??,???????,?1.5°C????20?????????????????,?1.5°C??????????20?,?????20??????
??????????????????????Alex J. Cannon?????????CMIP6?????,2024?????????????6?????????????????????12?????????1.5°C,??«????»??,??12??????1.5°C??????(????20????)??????????????????????????????,?????SSP2-4.5?,??????????76%,??????SSP1-2.6????????,?????????56%?
??,?????,??18?1.5°C????,???SSP2-4.5???,????????
???,?????????,????????,????????????,?????«????»?????(?????) ???????????:??????????
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?????2024???????:????????????1.5°C??????????????????