2024????????????:???????1.5°C?????

????:???????:??????

???????2????11???? (??????? ?????)?????????????????«????????????-???????»????????2024?«??????????»???,2024?????????????????1.5°C,?1.5°C??????????,?????«????????»???

???«????????????????»????????????1.5°C??????????,2015??????,«??»????,?1.5°C????????«?????»???????????????20-30????,??????(????????)???????????????????????

????,?20???2020????2030????????????????,??????2024??????1.5°C?????????,????«????????????»???

???,???????????Emanuele Bevacqua????????“???????????6”(CMIP6)????,??????????1981??????????2014???????

?????????????????????,??0.6°C-1°C?????,????20?????????????????????????,??????????2024?????1.5°C,???20???????????????,?????????????,2024????(??????66%)????(????????99%)??1.5°C?????20?????

???????,??????????????????(SSP)2-4.5?,?????????,???1.5°C??20????????????,????1.5°C??20????????????????,?20??

????????????Alex J. Cannon???CMIP6????,2024?????????6?????????12?????????????????1.5°C,???????????????«???»??,?????12????????1.5°C?????????????(??????????????20??????????)???????????,??SSP2-4.5???,??76%,???????SSP1-2.6?????,?56%?

????,????????,?????????????????18???????????1.5°C?????,?????????SSP2-4.5???????????,????????

??????,??????,??????????????????????,?????,????«????»??????????(?????) ???:????????