??
???????2?11????????? (?????????? ??)????«??????-???»????????2024?«????????»??????????????,2024??????1.5°C,????1.5°C?????????,????«????»????????
???«???»????1.5°C??????????????,2015???????,«????????????»????,??????????1.5°C???«??????»???20-30??,????(??????????????)???
??????,?20???????????2020??????2030?????????????????????,?????2024?????1.5°C?????????????,?????«??????????????»???
?,?????????Emanuele Bevacqua????????“?????????????????6”(CMIP6)????????????????,????1981????????2014??????????
???????,?????????????????????0.6°C-1°C???????????,?20?????????????????????,???2024?????1.5°C,?????????20??????,????????,2024?(??????????66%)?????????????????????(????99%)??????????1.5°C?????????????20????????
????,???????(SSP)2-4.5??????????,??????????,????1.5°C????20????????????????????,????????1.5°C????20?????,??20??????????????????
????????????????????????????Alex J. Cannon?????CMIP6????,2024???6?????12?????????1.5°C,???????????«?????»???????????????,??????12??????????????????????1.5°C??????????(?20??????)????????????????????,???????SSP2-4.5???,?????76%,????SSP1-2.6????,????56%?
????????,??,??????18?????1.5°C?????,???SSP2-4.5??,???
????,???????,????,????????,????«??????»????????????????(?????) ?????:???????????
?????????
?????2024????????????:???????1.5°C??????????????????