2024????????????:???????1.5°C?????

??????2????11????????????????????? (????????? ???????)?????????«?????????-????»????????2024?????«?»??????????,2024????1.5°C,?????1.5°C?,?????«?????»???????

????«??»?1.5°C???????????,2015?,«???????????????»????,????1.5°C???«??»??20-30????,????(??????????????????????)?????

????,??????????20??????????2020?????2030??????????????,???????2024??1.5°C??????????,?????«?????»?????

???,?????????????Emanuele Bevacqua????????????“??????????????6”(CMIP6)?????????????????????,????????????1981?????2014????????

?????????????,?0.6°C-1°C??????????????,?????20?????????????????,??????????2024???1.5°C,????20?????????????,???????,2024????(????????66%)????????????????(???99%)???????????1.5°C????????????????20?????????

???,??????????????(SSP)2-4.5???,????,?1.5°C???20??????????????????????????,?1.5°C???????20????,??????20??????

?????????????????????Alex J. Cannon??????CMIP6?????,2024???????6???????12??????1.5°C,??«?????????»?????????????????,????12???????????????1.5°C??(?????????20???)???????,????SSP2-4.5????????,?????76%,???SSP1-2.6????,???????56%?

?,???,?????????????????18???1.5°C???????????,?????????SSP2-4.5??,???

??????,???????????,??????????????????????,??????,?????????«????»???(?????????????????) ??????:??????????????