2024????????????:?????1.5°C???????

??2??????????????????????11??????? (???????? ????????????????)????????????????«??????-????»????????2024????«?????»?????????,2024?1.5°C,????1.5°C???????????,????«????»?????

?«?????????»??1.5°C????????????,2015???????,«????»????????????,??????????1.5°C????«???????»????20-30?,?????(????)????

??????????,????????????20???????????????2020????????????2030?????????????????,??2024???????????????1.5°C?????????,?????????????????«?????????»??????

?????,?????????????Emanuele Bevacqua?????????“??????6”(CMIP6)???,????1981????2014?????

????,?????0.6°C-1°C???,??????????20???????????,????2024??????????????????????1.5°C,?????????????????20????????????????????,???,2024????(??????????66%)?(????99%)?????????????????????1.5°C?????20??

?????,????????????????(SSP)2-4.5?????,??,???1.5°C??20?????????????????,???????1.5°C????20???????????,?????20????

??????????Alex J. Cannon???????????CMIP6??????????,2024???6????12?1.5°C,?«??????»?????????????????????,??12?????????????????1.5°C???(????????20????????????????)???????,????????SSP2-4.5???????,??????76%,??????SSP1-2.6??????????,??56%?

??????,???????,????????18?1.5°C????,??SSP2-4.5??????????,?????

?????,?????????????????,???????,?????,???????«??????????????»????(????) ??????????:???