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????2???????????????11???????? (????????????????????? ?)?????«?????????-????»????2024??«????»??????,2024?????1.5°C,???????????1.5°C???????,?????????«????»???????

????«???»?1.5°C???????????,2015???,«???????»??,???????1.5°C??????????????«?????????»??20-30???,??????????????(??)???

?,????????20????????2020????????2030???????????????????????????????????,?2024??1.5°C?????????,???????«????»????????

??????????????,?????????????Emanuele Bevacqua????“?????6”(CMIP6)????,?1981???2014??????????????????

??????????????,????????????????0.6°C-1°C??,????????20???????????,??????????2024?????1.5°C,??20???????????????????????????,??????,2024????????????(????66%)?????(?????????99%)???1.5°C????????20???

????,????????????????????(SSP)2-4.5?????,?????,????1.5°C??????20????????????????,??????????1.5°C????20???,???20??????????????????????

??????????Alex J. Cannon?????????????????CMIP6??????,2024??6?12?1.5°C,???????«???»???????????,????12??????????1.5°C?(??????????20??????????)??????????????????,??????SSP2-4.5???????,?????76%,???????SSP1-2.6?????????????????,????56%?

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