2024???????:?????1.5°C????????????

??????????2?11??? (???????????? ????????????????)????????????«?????????????????????-??»?????????????????????2024?«???????»?,2024??????1.5°C,??????????????1.5°C??,???????????????«???????»????????????

????«??????»????1.5°C?????????????????????,2015?????,«?????»??,?????????1.5°C????«???»?????20-30?????????,??(????????????)???????????????

??????????????????????,???20?2020????2030??????????????,???2024????????1.5°C?????????,????????????????«??????»??????

??????????,??????????????Emanuele Bevacqua????“???????6”(CMIP6)??????,???????????????1981?2014????

??????,????0.6°C-1°C????????,???????20???????????????,??????????2024?????????????????1.5°C,????????????20?????????,?????,2024????????(????66%)???(?????99%)?1.5°C??????20????

????,??????????(SSP)2-4.5??,??????????????????????,????1.5°C?????????20?????????????,????1.5°C????20?????,??????20??????

?????????Alex J. Cannon????CMIP6??????????,2024???6??????????????12?1.5°C,?????????????????«???????????»?????,????12???????1.5°C????(??????????20????????)??????????,?SSP2-4.5???????,??76%,????SSP1-2.6?????,?????56%?

????????,?????????,??18??1.5°C??????????,????????SSP2-4.5???????,???????????

??,?????????,????,???,???«????»??????????????(????) ??????????????????:?????