2024????????????:?????1.5°C???????

????:??????????:????????

?2????11???? (????????? ??)????????«????-?????»?????2024????«????????»????????,2024?????????1.5°C,???????1.5°C??????????????,????«?????????????»??????

????«???»??1.5°C??????????????,2015????,«????????????»???????,????????1.5°C????????????«?????»???????????????20-30????,??????????(??)?????

???????????,????20???????????????2020???2030?????????,????????2024????1.5°C??????????????????????,???????«?»??

????,??????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua????“??????6”(CMIP6)??????????,???????1981??????2014???????

?????,????0.6°C-1°C????,?????????20???????????????,?????????2024?????????????????????1.5°C,???20?????????????,??????,2024????????????????(??????????????????????66%)??????(?????????????99%)?1.5°C??????20?????

??,????????????????(SSP)2-4.5??????????,??????????,?1.5°C??????????20???????????????????????????,??1.5°C???20???????????,??20?????

???????Alex J. Cannon?????CMIP6????????,2024???6?????????????????12???????1.5°C,????????????«?????»???????,?12??????1.5°C??????????????(????20????)?????????,???SSP2-4.5???,?????76%,???SSP1-2.6?,????56%?

????,????????,?????18?1.5°C??,??????SSP2-4.5??,?????????

????,?????????????,?????????????????????,???,?????«?????????»???(??????????????) ??????????????????:??????????????????