??
??????????2????????????????11?????? (???????? ???)??????????????????«????????-????»????????2024????«????????»?????????????????????,2024?????1.5°C,????????????1.5°C?????,????«???»????????
?????«?????»??????????????1.5°C?????????????,2015??????,«???»????,????1.5°C????????«???»??????20-30??,????(????)??????
?????,???20????????????????2020????????2030????????????????????????????????,??????????????????????2024???????????1.5°C?,?????«?????»?????????
??????????,????????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua?“????6”(CMIP6)?????,????????????1981???2014????????????????
????,??0.6°C-1°C??,?????????????????20???????,?2024??????????????1.5°C,??????20??????????????????,??,2024?????????(???????66%)????(???????99%)????1.5°C????20???
?????,????????(SSP)2-4.5????,??????,????1.5°C???????????20??????????,??1.5°C??????????20?????????????,????20??????????
???????????????????Alex J. Cannon???CMIP6?,2024?????????6?????????12????1.5°C,?????????«????»????,???????12??1.5°C???(??20?????)??????,????SSP2-4.5??????,?????????????76%,????SSP1-2.6?????????,???????????56%?
?????,??????????,?18?????1.5°C??????????????????????,?SSP2-4.5????,??????????????????
????????,?????????????????,???????,????,??«??????»???????(??????????????) ????:??????
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?????2024?????:????????????1.5°C????????????????????