????“????”?

?????????????:?????????

???????2025.2.24??????????????1176???????????????«???????»????

2025?2?????????18?????,?????????,????????“?????”??“???????”??,???????????

??????,??,??????,?????????????????,??,???????

???????????,???“???????,???”,?????“?????????????”????????,??18????,?????“???????????????????????????”?????????????????,?????????????

????????????????????2?????????18??????????????????,???,???????????????“??????????,???????????????”?????????????,“??,‘???,???????????????????????’???????,?????????(??)?”

??????????????????????,???????,?????????,???????????????,?,??????“???????????”?

????????????????????????“??????”??????????????????????????????????????????????????

??????????????

2??13??????,????????????????????????????????????,??????“??”?????????????,??,????????????????????“??????????????????”?

?????????????????????2024????????????????,??????????????????????????,???????,??????????????????????????:“??38????”

????????????,?,????????????????????????????????

“??????????????,??????????????????,?????????????????(????????????????????)???”?(OSCE)???????«?????????????»?????????

??????????????2????13???????????,?????????????????:???????,???????????????????????,????????,????????????????

“???????(??)??????????????????,????????????:????????????”???????????(ECFR)????????????????????????????,??,??????????????????,?????????????????????????????,????

?????????,??????“????????????????????????”??????????,????????????,?????“?”?????“24?????????”??“?????”???????????“???????????(4??????????????20??)??”,?????????????????????????????????????????????,?????????

??????,2????????18????????,???????????????????,??????????????,????

???????????????,????,??????????????“?????”?????«???????»??????,??,????????????“?????????????”?

????????????????????????,??????????,????????????????????,???2024??????????,????,??????,??????????,???????????????????????

??????????????????,?????????2025???,??????????????????????????,????????1991???“???????”,??????????“??????,??????????????????”?????????,?????????,???

???????????????2022???,?????????,???????????????,?????????????????????“????????????????”???????????????????,2022???????????????,?????????,????????,????????

?,??????????????????????????????????????????????“????,????,????,???????”???????????????????????«??????»???????????,“?????????,?????????,???”

????????????????,?,??????????????????????????,??,???????????,????“????????????????,?????????????”

????????????????????????“??????????????????”???????(shock and awe)????????????????????????????????????«????»?????????????,???????????,????????????“??,???????????,????????????,???”?

“????????????,???????,??”??????????????????????????????????????,“????????????????????”??,???????“??”?

????????????,????????,???????????,????????,????????????????;???????????,?????“?????????????”,????????????????????,?????“???????”??,??????????,???????“?”?

6?????????????2019?????,?????????????,???????????????,????????????????????:??,????????????????????????????????????,???????????????

?????????????????????,??????,??,???“??????”???????????????????,???????????,?2022??????,?,??????????,“???(?)?????,?????????????,??”?

????????????????????,????????????????,???????????????,?,????“?”?

“??????????????????????????????????”

2025?????2??????14?????????,???????????,«???????????????»????????,?“?”??????????:“?????,????????????????,???????????????????????????”

??,???????????????????,????,??“?????????????????????”,??????????????????????,????“?????????”?????,??“?????????????,?????????”?

??????????,??????,????“??????”?????????,??????????“????????????????????”????????????????????????????«?»?????????

???????,????????????????“?????”?,???????????????2025??????????1?????????????????????,???????,?????????,“?????????,????????????????”??????????????????????????,?,??????????????????????????????,????????“?”?

“????????????????,?,?????”?????????????,“???????,?????”

?????????????????????2024??12?????????,???????,??????????????????“??”,??????????????????,?????????????????????????,?“?”?????????,????????????????????????,??????

?,????????????????:2019??????,?????????????“????????????????”??,??2020??????????????????????????“????”,??????“??????????”????

?????????,????“?????????????????????”,????????????????,2014???????????????,????????????????«?????????»,???????,???????????????“????????????????????”?????????????????

????????????2020 ?????????? 6 ???????????????????,??,???“????????????”,???????????????????2016?2022?????????????2????,??????8?????????????????????,??????

????????,????????????,?2014???????2022??,???????????????????????,?????“?”,?????????????????2022??:?5???????????,??????“???????????????,??????”?

????????????????????«??»???????????,?????????,?,?????????????????????????,?????????:“????,?????????????????‘?????????????????,????????’?”

??,?????“??”??????????????“????”????,????,??????,??,???????????,???????????????????,??????????,???????

“????,?????????,?????????,??‘??’?”????????????????????

?,???????????????????????????????,?????,??:?????,???????????,??????????????????????????

??????????,???????????,?:????????????????????:???????????????,?????????????????????????????????????????

“????????????”

2024?????????????????12??????????18????????,“???????????????????”??,??,??????????????????,?????“??”?????????????????,??????????

????,???????????????,????12??????????????14??????????????????????????15??“???”,?“????????”??????,??????????,???:???????????????????,??????????????????“?????????????”?

?????????????????????????????????????,??????,????????????????,??????????????????????,??

????????,??????????????????“?????”??,????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????7????????????«???»??????????????,???????????“???????????????”??????????????????;????,????“????”;???????

?????????????????,?????????????,????????????????????“???????????????????????”????????????,?“???????”?????????????

????????????????,??????????“??????,????”;????????????,?????????????????“????????????????????”???????????,????????,??“???????????”?

??????????,?????????????????2025????2?????????????????????12???,???14????????1.8????????????,???,??????????????50%???????????????

????????????????????,???,????????????????,??????????:??,?????????

????????????“?????????”?????????????????????????,??????????15%,??????2024?????5?????23%????????????????????“????????”,???,???????????????,??:????

??,????????????????????????????????????(GDP)??0.75%?????????????,????GDP????0.52%,?????????11???

?,?????????????“???”,?“?????????”?????????????????,?????????????,????????,?????????????????????,???????5000????

?????????????,????,?????????????????????????,???????????????????????,???????????????????????,??????,????????????“?????????????”??????????????????

??????,???????????????????:?????????????????????,“?”????,??????????????:“?????????????,?????,???????????????”

???????,????????????????????????,??????700???,????????????????????:“???????,??,?????????:?????????????????”

2024?????,????????????????????????????????,??????????????“?????”?

“???????????:??????????,??,???????”???????1918???????,???,?????????(John Joseph Pershing)?????????????“???????,???20???????”,??????????????????

“???????”?????????????????????????:??????,?????????????????????“???????”?????????????,????????????????????

?«???»??????????????????,?????????????????,??????????????????????,??,?,??????“?????”?????????,????????

????,????????????????,???,?????????“??”,???????,??????????,??????????,??????????“??????,?”?

???????????????“???????”???????????????????????,?????????????????????????,???????“???”???????“???????”;???????????????,???????«??»??????,?,???????????,?“????????????????????????????”?

«??????»2025?6??????????????????

??????:???????????????«????????????????????»????????? ?????????????????????????????:??????????