????2???11???? (?????? ?????????????)???????«??-??»?????2024????????«????»??????????,2024?????1.5°C,???1.5°C?????????????????,??????«???????????????»??
????«??????????»?????1.5°C????????????????,2015????????,«????»????????,?1.5°C????«??»?????20-30?,?????????(??????????)????
????,??????20??????????????2020????2030??????????????,??????????2024?1.5°C?????,????«?»????????
????,????????????????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua??????“???????????6”(CMIP6)?????????,???????????????1981??????????????2014???
?,????????0.6°C-1°C???????,?????????????????20?????????????????,???2024?1.5°C,???????20???????????,??,2024???????????(?????????????????66%)?????(?99%)?????1.5°C???????20????
??????,?????????????(SSP)2-4.5?????????,???????,?????????1.5°C???????????20??????????????????????????,????1.5°C??????20??,??????????????????????20???????????????????????
?????????Alex J. Cannon???CMIP6??????,2024????6????????12????1.5°C,??«????»???,??????????????12?????1.5°C????(????20??)????????,??SSP2-4.5???????,????76%,?????????????????????SSP1-2.6??,????????56%?
????,??????????,??????18?????1.5°C??????????,?????SSP2-4.5???????,????????
???????,?????????????????,????????,??????????,?«????????????????»????(??) ??????????????:???????????
????????????100???
???????????????????????
????!?????:??????????
«??·????????»???????
??????????????????
????:????????????
????!?????????136?????6.5%
«??·????????»???????
????????????????????
??????????????????????
????????????????24657?
??«????»????????????
?????????????????????
???:???????10%????????
??????????????????7??
????????1260???????????
????:????????????????
17?????????????????
???????:????????????
????:????????????
???????????????????
?????????????2???
??:??3??????????8%?????
Gary????\"???????\"2??????…
???:??????????????????