?? 2024?????:???????1.5°C????????????
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???2????11?????????????? (? ???????)?????????«?????????-???»????2024??«??????????????»????????????,2024?????????1.5°C,?????????1.5°C??????,?????????????«???»???
????«????»???????1.5°C???????,2015?????????????,«??????????????»????,??????????1.5°C???????«????»????20-30???????,?????(??????????????????????)????
???????,??????20??2020????2030???????,??????2024??????????1.5°C?,????«?»????
???????????,?????????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua????“???????????6”(CMIP6)????,????????1981????2014?????
?????????,???????0.6°C-1°C????,????????20???,??????2024?????????????????????1.5°C,?????????20?????????????,????,2024?????(?????66%)??(?????99%)??????????1.5°C????????????????20????????
?????,????????(SSP)2-4.5????,?????,??????????1.5°C??????????20????????????????,????????1.5°C??20????????,??20???????
???????????????Alex J. Cannon?????????????????????CMIP6???,2024??6??12?????1.5°C,??????????«?»?????????????????,???????12???1.5°C????(?????????????????20?)??????,?SSP2-4.5??????????????????????,?????????????????76%,?????SSP1-2.6????,?????56%?
????????????,???,??????18?1.5°C????,???????SSP2-4.5????????,????????????
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