???2????11?????????????? (? ???????)?????????«?????????-???»????2024??«??????????????»????????????,2024?????????1.5°C,?????????1.5°C??????,?????????????«???»???

????«????»???????1.5°C???????,2015?????????????,«??????????????»????,??????????1.5°C???????«????»????20-30???????,?????(??????????????????????)????

???????,??????20??2020????2030???????,??????2024??????????1.5°C?,????«?»????

???????????,?????????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua????“???????????6”(CMIP6)????,????????1981????2014?????

?????????,???????0.6°C-1°C????,????????20???,??????2024?????????????????????1.5°C,?????????20?????????????,????,2024?????(?????66%)??(?????99%)??????????1.5°C????????????????20????????

?????,????????(SSP)2-4.5????,?????,??????????1.5°C??????????20????????????????,????????1.5°C??20????????,??20???????

???????????????Alex J. Cannon?????????????????????CMIP6???,2024??6??12?????1.5°C,??????????«?»?????????????????,???????12???1.5°C????(?????????????????20?)??????,?SSP2-4.5??????????????????????,?????????????????76%,?????SSP1-2.6????,?????56%?

????????????,???,??????18?1.5°C????,???????SSP2-4.5????????,????????????

?????????,?????????????,??????????,????????????,?????«?????»????????????????(???????????????) ????:????????? “?????100???”_????

?? 2024?????:???????1.5°C????????????

????:1??????100???:????Qq

2???150??????

3???????

4????????

5??????????

???2????11?????????????? (? ???????)?????????«?????????-???»????2024??«??????????????»????????????,2024?????????1.5°C,?????????1.5°C??????,?????????????«???»???

????«????»???????1.5°C???????,2015?????????????,«??????????????»????,??????????1.5°C???????«????»????20-30???????,?????(??????????????????????)????

???????,??????20??2020????2030???????,??????2024??????????1.5°C?,????«?»????

???????????,?????????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua????“???????????6”(CMIP6)????,????????1981????2014?????

?????????,???????0.6°C-1°C????,????????20???,??????2024?????????????????????1.5°C,?????????20?????????????,????,2024?????(?????66%)??(?????99%)??????????1.5°C????????????????20????????

?????,????????(SSP)2-4.5????,?????,??????????1.5°C??????????20????????????????,????????1.5°C??20????????,??20???????

???????????????Alex J. Cannon?????????????????????CMIP6???,2024??6??12?????1.5°C,??????????«?»?????????????????,???????12???1.5°C????(?????????????????20?)??????,?SSP2-4.5??????????????????????,?????????????????76%,?????SSP1-2.6????,?????56%?

????????????,???,??????18?1.5°C????,???????SSP2-4.5????????,????????????

?????????,?????????????,??????????,????????????,?????«?????»????????????????(???????????????) ????:?????????