2024???????:????????????1.5°C?????

????2??????????11?? (???? ????)????????????«???????????-??????????»??????????2024????????????«????????????»??????????,2024????????1.5°C,??1.5°C????,??????????«?????????????????????»??????????????????

????«??»?????????1.5°C?????????????,2015????????,«??»??????,??????????????????????1.5°C???????????????«?»?????20-30??????,?????(???????)??

???,?20??2020?????2030???????,????????2024??1.5°C?????????,????«???????»????

??,???????????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua?“???????????????6”(CMIP6)????????????????,????1981?????2014??????????????????????

????????????,????????0.6°C-1°C?????????????,????20?????????????,?2024???????1.5°C,????20?????????,?????????,2024???(??????????66%)????(??99%)?1.5°C??20??????????

??,?????????????????(SSP)2-4.5????,????,????1.5°C???20??????????????????????,???1.5°C??????????????20??????,???20??????????????????

????????????????Alex J. Cannon??????CMIP6?????,2024??????????6??????12?????????????1.5°C,???????«???»???,?????????12??????1.5°C????????(???????????20???????????????)???????????,????SSP2-4.5??????????????????????,??76%,???????SSP1-2.6????,?????56%?

???,???????,?????18?????1.5°C???????,???SSP2-4.5?????,????

?,????????????,??????,?????,?????????«?????»?????(??) ??:?????????????????