2024????????????:???????1.5°C?????

????2?????11???? (??? ??????????????)?????«?????-??????»??????2024???«??????»?,2024??1.5°C,?????1.5°C??????,?????????????«????????»?????????????????

?????«?????????»????1.5°C?????????????????????????????????,2015???????,«?»?????,?1.5°C???????????????????????«??????????»????20-30????????????,???(????)???????

???????,???20?2020???????????????2030????????????????????????????????,????????????2024??????????1.5°C???????,???????«????»?????

????????,???????????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua?????“????6”(CMIP6)????????,????????1981??????2014????

?????????????????????,?????????????????0.6°C-1°C?,????20?????????????????,??????????2024??1.5°C,????20????????????????,???,2024????(??????66%)??(??99%)????1.5°C???????20?????

???,??????(SSP)2-4.5??????????????,?????????,??????????1.5°C?????20????????????????,????1.5°C?????????20???????,??20????????????????

???????????Alex J. Cannon????CMIP6??????,2024??6?????12????1.5°C,??????????«?????»???????,????????12?????1.5°C???????????(???????20????????)???????,??????????SSP2-4.5?????,?????76%,?????????????????SSP1-2.6?????,?56%?

??,????,?18??????????????1.5°C????,????SSP2-4.5????????????????,?????

???????,??????????????????,??,?????????,?«?????????????????»??(??????) ???:?????