�??????�????

????:????????:??????

???????2?????11????? (???? ??)?????????????????�?????????????-?????????????????�???2024????????�????�?,2024????????????1.5�C,???1.5�C???,??????�?????????????????????�??????

????�????�?1.5�C?????????,2015??????????,�??�????????????,?????1.5�C?????�?????????????????�????20-30????,???????????????(??????????????)?????????

?,????????????20?????????2020????2030????????,????2024?????????????????????1.5�C???????,??????�??�???????????

???????,?????Emanuele Bevacqua????????�????6�(CMIP6)????,???????1981??????????2014?????????

?????????????,??????0.6�C-1�C???,?????????20???????,?2024?????????1.5�C,???????20???????????,????,2024??????????(??????66%)?????(??????99%)???1.5�C???????20????

????,??????????????(SSP)2-4.5?????????,?????????????????,?????1.5�C????????????????20????????????????,?????1.5�C????20???,????20???????????????????????

???????Alex J. Cannon?????????CMIP6??????????????????????,2024??6?12??????1.5�C,???????????????�????�??,???????12??????????1.5�C????(?????20??????????)??????????????????,????SSP2-4.5??,????76%,??????????SSP1-2.6??,??56%?

????,?,???18???????1.5�C????????,???SSP2-4.5????????,???????????????

????,????????????????????,?????,??????,???????�?�?????????(???) ????????????:???????????????