????“????”?

??????????????????:????????

?2025.2.24??????1176????«?»???????

2025?????2?18??,???????,??????“????????????”?????“????????????????????”????????????,??

?????????????,????????????,??,??????????????????,??,??????

?????????????,?“????????????????,?”,??????????????????“???????????????????”????????,?????????????????????????18???????,????????????????????“??????”?????????,??????

?2????????????????????18??????????????,????????,???????????????“??????,???????????????????????????????”?????????,“?????????,‘??????,???????????????’?????,???(????)?”

?????????????????,?????????????????????,????????????,???????????????????????????,??,???????????????????????????“?????????????”?

?????????“???????”?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

????????????????

2???????13???????????????????????,?????????????????,???????????????“????????????????”????????????,????????????????,?????????“?”?

????????????2024?????,?????????????????,???,?????:“??????????????38?????????”

???????????,?????????????,???????

“??????,????????????,????????????????(?)?????”????????????????????(OSCE)???«??????»???

??2????????13?????????????,??????????:????,???????????????????????,?????????,???????

“??(?)???????????,??????:???”???????????????(ECFR)???????????????????,????,?????????????????,?????????,???????????

?,??“?????????????????”???,?????????,????????“???????”?????????????“24?????????????????”??“???????????”???????????????????“?????????????????????(4????20?????????????)?????????”,?????????????????,??????????????????????????

??,2????18?,???????????????????????????????????????????,???????????,?????????????????

?????????????????????,????,???????????????????????“??????????????????”??????«?????????»???,??,?????“????????????????”?

?????????,???????????????????????????,?????????,????????????????2024??,??,???,????????????????????????????????,????????????????

??????????,?2025??????????,?????????????????????,?1991???????????“????????”,???????????“?,????????????????????”?????????????,????????,?????????

??????2022???????,?????????????????????????,?????,???“???????????????”??????????,2022??,??????,??????????????,??

?????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????“??,????????????????????,??????,????”??????????????«?»???????????,“?????,?????????,???”

?????????????????????????,?????,????????????????,???????????,???????????,????????????“????,???????????”

????????????????????????????????????????????????“???????????????”?????(shock and awe)???????????«??????????»??????????????????,?????????????????,??????????????“????????????,???,??,??????”?

“?????,???????????????,?????????????”????????,“??????????????”????????????????????,??????????????????????“????????”?

?,?,?????????????????????,?????????????????,?????????;?????,??“????????”,???????,??????????“??????????????????”?,??????,?????????????????????“???????????”?

6??????????2019?,??????????????????,???????????????????????????,????????????:?????????????,?????????????,???????????????????

?????,??????????,?????????,???“???????”??????????????????????????,??????????????????????,???????????2022??????,?,????????????????,“????????????????????(??????)??????????,??????,???????”?

?,??????????????????????????,???????,?????????,????“????”?

“??????”

2025?????????2???14???????????????,?????????????????????,«???????????????????????»???????????,??“???”?????????????????:“?????????????,??????????????,???????????????”

???????????????,???????????????????????,????????????????,????????????????“??????????”,?????????,?????????“??”???????,????????“???,??”?

?????????????,????,???????????????“??????????????”?????,?????????“??”??????????????????«????????»??????

?????????,????“?”?????,????????2025??????????1???????,???,????????????????????????????????,“???,?????????”??,?????,????,?????????????“?????????????”?

“?????????????????,????????????????????,????????????????”?????,“?????????,???????”

?2024????????????????????????12??????????????????,?,?????????????????“??????”,?????,????????????????????????????,????????????????“???????”??,??????????,???????????????

??,??????????????????????????????????:2019??,???????????“?????????”????????,??????2020????????????????????“??”,???????“????”???????

?????????,???????????????????“??????????????”,??????,2014??,?????????????????«???????????????»,??,?????????????“???????????????”????????????

????2020 ? 6 ????,?????,????????“?????”,?????????????????????2016?2022??????????2???????????????????,???8?????????????????????????,????

????,???????,???????????2014???????2022??????,??????????????????????,???????????“?????”,???????2022??????:????????5????????????????,?????“???????????????,????????”?

????????????????????«??»???????????????????,?????????,???,?????,????????????????????:“???????????,???‘????????????,???’?”

??????????????????,???????????????“?????????”???????????????“???????????”??,??????????????????,?,??????,???????????????????,????????,??????????,??????

“??????,??,??????,??????????‘?????????’?”??????????????????

????????,????????????????????????,?????????????,???????????:??????????,???????????????????,??

????,?????,???:????????????????:????,??????????????????????????

“?????????????”

2024?????12?????????????????????????18???????????????,“?????????”?????????????????????,????????,????????????????????????????,??“??????????????”??????????????????????????????????????,?????????????????

??????????????????,??????????,???12????????14???????????15????????????????????????“?????????????”,???????????????“??????”??????????????????????????????????????????,?,??????????????????:????,??“?????????????????????”?

?????????????????,?????????????????????????????,?,?????????,???

??????,??????“???”??,?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????7?????«??????????????»??,??“????????????”??????????????????;???????,???“??????”;????????

?,??????????????????????????????????,?“????????????”???,????????????????????????“??????”??

?,?????????????????“?????????????,???????”;?????????????,???????????????“???????”????,?,?????“????”?

?????????????????????,??????????2025??2????????????????12???????????????????????,??????14????????????????1.8????????????????????????,??????,????????????????50%?????

?????????????,??????????,???????????????,????????????????:????????????????,?????????????????

??????“??????????”???????,?????????15%,???????????????2024????????????????5????????????23%???“??????”,???,????,????????????????????:???????

?????????,??????????????????????(GDP)???????????????0.75%???,??GDP???????0.52%,?????11??????

?????????????????,???????????????“?????????”,??????“??????”????????????,??????????,???????????????????,??,??????????????????????????5000?????????????

???????????????????????????????????,?????????????????,???????????????????????????,????????????????????????????,??????????????,?????????,???????????????“????”???????

??,??:???????????,“??????????????????”???????,????????:“?????????,????,??????????????????????”

??????,???????????????,????????????????700????????????,????????:“?????,????????,??????????????:?????????????????????”

2024??,????????,?“?????”?

“?????????????:????????,???,???????????????????”???????1918??????????,??,???????(John Joseph Pershing)????????????????????“????,????20???????????”,????????????????????????????

“?????”???????????????:????,??????????????“??????????????????????????”???????,??????

????????????????????«??????»?,??????????????????????,????????????????????,???????,?,????“??”???,???????

??????????????????,?????????,???????????????,???????“????????”,?????????????????,?,????????????,?“??????????,????????”?

???????2025????????2??????????17???????????????????,???????????“??”????3?????????????,?????????,????

??“??”???,?????????,?“?????”??????????????“??”;???????,?????????????«??????????»????????????????????,??,??,?????????????“???????”?

«???????»2025?????6????????

????:??????????«?????»?? ????????????????????:???????