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??2??????????????11?????? (???? ?)??????«???-???????»?????2024??????«??»????,2024???????1.5°C,??????????1.5°C????????,??«?????????»?????????????
?????«?????????»????1.5°C????????????,2015??????????????????????,«??????»????????????,????1.5°C??????????????«????»??????????20-30?,???????????(??????????)????
?,???????????????20???2020?????2030??????????????????,?2024??1.5°C????,??«???????»??????
?????????,????????????Emanuele Bevacqua????“???6”(CMIP6)?????????,?????1981????????????2014???
????,?????0.6°C-1°C????????,??20?????????????,???????2024???????????1.5°C,?????????????????20??????????,???????????,2024?(???????66%)???(??????99%)????1.5°C?20?????
??,???????????????????????(SSP)2-4.5?,????,????????1.5°C??????20?????????,????1.5°C?????????????????20?????????,????????20??????
?????????Alex J. Cannon???CMIP6?????,2024????6??????12????????1.5°C,????«????????»?????????????????????,????12??1.5°C????(??20??????????)??????????????????,?????????????????????SSP2-4.5?????????????????,????76%,??????SSP1-2.6??????????,?????????????56%?
??????????,?????,?????18??1.5°C????,???SSP2-4.5?,????????????????
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