????“????”?

??:?????????

??????2025.2.24?1176???????«???????»??

2025?????????????????????????????????2?????????18??,??????,???“?????????????????????”???????????“????????????????”????????????????????,?????????

??,??????????,??????????,???????????,??,?????

???????,?????“????,???”,????“?????”????,??????18?????????????????,???????????????????“????????????????”???????????,??????

???????2??18???????????????????????,?????,????“???????????,?????????”????????????,“?????????????????????,‘?????????????????,????’??????,?????(?)?”

?????????????,?????????????,????,???????????????????????????????,??????,?“?????????????”?

?????????????????“?????”??????????????????????????????????????

????????

2????????????13??,????????,?“????????????????”????????,???????????,???????????????“?????????”?

???????????????????????????????????2024?????????????????????????,??????????????,???,????????????:“???????????????????38????????????”

??????,?????????,????????????????

“?????,??????????????,???????(????????????????????????????)?????????”????(OSCE)???????«???????????»????????

???????2??13?????????????,??????????????????????????:???????????,??????????????,?????????????????,?????

“?????????????(?)?????????????????????,????????????????????:????????”?????????????????(ECFR)????????????,????????????,?????????????,????????????????????,????????????????

?????????????????????,??????“???????”???????????????,????????????,?????????“??????????”???“24????????????????”??“?”??“?(4?????????????????20????????????????)????????”,?????????????????,???

????????,2?18??????,???????????????????,?????,????????????????????

?????????????????,????,?????????????????????“??”?????«????????????»???,????????????,???????“??????”?

???,?????????,???,?????2024??????,????????????????,???,??????????????????????????????,??????????

?????,??????????????2025????????????????????,?????????????????,??1991????????????????????“??????????”,???????????“?????????????,?????????????????????”?????,??,???????????

??2022????,???????????????,????????????,?“?????????”??????,2022??,????????,??????????????,??????????

?????????,????????????????????????????“??????,?????,???,???????????”??????????????????«??????»?????,“???,???????????????,?????????”

?????,???????????????,??????????????????????????????,????????,??????????,?????????????????“????,?????”

???????????????????“??????????”?????????????(shock and awe)????????????????????????«???????»?,?,??????????????????????????????????“????????????????,?,??,?????????????????????”?

“???????????,??,???????????”??????????????????????????,“?????????”??????????????????,??“?????”?

??????????????,????,????,??????????????,??;?????????????????????????????,?????????“???”,???????????????????,?“???????????????”??????,??,???????“????????”?

6????2019?????????,?,??????????????????,???????????:???????,????????????????????,?????????

???????????,?????????????,?????????????????????,???“??????????????”??????????????????????????,??,????????????2022??,?,??,“?(???????????????????????????)????????????,???????????,??”?

??????,???????????????????????????????,?????????,???????????,?“???????”?

“?????????????”

2025?????????????2??????14????????,????????????????????,«??»??????????????,??“??????????”?????????????:“?,????????????????????????????????,??????????”

??,???????????????????,????????????,??????“??”,?????????????????????,??“??”????,?“????????????????????,??????????????”?

???????,??????????????,?????“????????????????????”????????,???????????????????“????????????”????????«???????»???

???????????????,?“?”????,?????????????????????????2025????1??????,?????????,???????,“???????????????,?”?????????????,?????????????????,?????????????????????????????????????,?????????????????????“????”?

“???????,????,???”???????????????,“???,??”

???2024??????12??????,??,?“??????????????????”,??????????,??????????????????????????,?????????????“?????????????”????,??????,???????????????????

?????????,????????????:2019?????????????,????????“?????????”???????????,?????2020?????????????“?????”,????????????“??????????????”?????????????

????????,?????????????????“??????????????”,??????????????????????????????????,2014?????,??????????????????????????????????????«??»,??????????,???????????????“??????????????????????”???????

?????????2020 ??????????????? 6 ????????????????????????????,????????????,???????“??????”,????????????????????2016?????????????2022?????????2????????????????????,??????8??????????????????,??????

?,?????????????????,??????2014?????????????????2022?,????????????????????????????,??????“??????”,??????2022??????????:?????????5????????????????,??????????“?????,??”?

???????????????????????«????»?????????????,????????,???????,???????????,?:“???????????,??????????‘?,???????’?”

???????,????????“?????????????????”???????????????????“????????????”???????????,?????????????????,???????????????????,????????,???????????,??????,??????????????,???????

“?????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????,?????????,????????‘?????????’?”????????

????????????????????????,?????????,?????????,????????:?????????????,?????????,???????????????

????????????,???,????:????????????????????:??????,?????????????????????????????????????

“????”

2024????????????????12??????????18?????????,“???????????”?????????,???????????????,?????????????,???“????????????????????”???????????????????????,??????

??????,???????,??12???????????????????14?????????15????“?????????”,???????????????“???????”??????????,?????????????,?????????????????:?????????,???????????????????“?”?

??????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????,????????????????????,??????????????????????,?????????

?????,?“?”?????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????7??????????????????????????????«?»???,?“??????????????????????”?;?,???“?????????????”;???????????????

?????,???????,?????????“??????????”??,??????????“????????”?????

??????????,????“??????????,????????”;????,???????????????????“??”?????,????????????????????,???????“?????”?

???????????,????2025??????2?????????????????????12???????????????,?????????????14??1.8???????????????????,???,?????????????????????????50%??????????????????

??????????????????????,??????????,??,?????????????????????:????????????,???????????????????

?????????“????”?????,?????15%,?????2024??????????????????5?23%??“????????”,???????,??????????,?????????????????????????:????????

?,?????????????(GDP)?0.75%???,?GDP?????0.52%,?????11???

????????????????????,???“??????????????”,???????????“???????????”?????????????????,?????????????????????????????,???????,??????????,???????????????????5000???????????????????????????????????

??????,??,??????????????????,?????????,???????????????????????????,???????,???????“??????????????”????????????

??????,???????:??,“????????”??????,?:“???????????????????????????????,????,????”

????????????????????????,???????????,?700???????????????,?????????:“??,????????,?????????????????:???????????????????”

2024??????????????,???,???“??”?

“???:?,????????,??????”????????1918?????????????,?,??????????????????(John Joseph Pershing)????“??????,????????20???????”,????????????????????????

“??????????????”???????????????????????:?????????????,????????“?????????”??????????,?????????????

??????????????????«??????????????????????»????????????????,?????,???????????????????????????????????????,??????????,???????????,??“?????????”???????????,???

???????,????????????,????????,???????????????????“??????”,??????????????????????,????????????????????????,????????????????,??????“?????????????????????,??”?

????????2025??????????2??17??,??????????“????”??????????3??????????,??,?????

?????????????????????“??????????”??,???,?????????“???????????????????????”???“??”;?,???????????????«??????»??,??????????????,???????????,?????????????“?????????????????”?

«????????»2025??6?????

???????????????:?????«??»?????????? ??????????:????????