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??2???11?????????????????????? (??????????? ????)?????????«?????-??»??????????2024??????????????«??»?????????????????,2024????????????1.5°C,??????1.5°C????,??«????????????????»????

?????????????????????«?????»????1.5°C????????????????,2015??????????,«????»????????????,????????1.5°C??????«????»????20-30????????,??????????????(????????)????

??????,?????20?2020????????2030????????????????,????2024???????????????1.5°C????,????«????»????????

???????????,?????????????????Emanuele Bevacqua??????????????“????????6”(CMIP6)??????,????1981???????????2014??

?????????,????????????0.6°C-1°C????,????20????????????,?????2024????1.5°C,?20????????,????,2024?????????(??66%)??????(?????????99%)??1.5°C?????20???????????

???????,??????????(SSP)2-4.5???,?????????,????1.5°C??????????20?????????,?1.5°C??20????,???????20?????

????????????????????Alex J. Cannon?????????????????????CMIP6??,2024???????6??12???????1.5°C,???«???»??????,????12??????????????????????1.5°C???????(???20????????????????)????????????,??????????SSP2-4.5????????,???????76%,?????????????????SSP1-2.6???????,??????56%?

??,?????????,????18??????1.5°C?????,?????SSP2-4.5???????????????,?????????

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